Your intrepid correspondent writes to you from the very depths of India as he travels “on Foreign Assignment” for AmCham.
Last year’s census concluded there are 1.2 billion Indians; I refer to the country just to the south of the Himalayas and not North or South American Indians, so misnamed because Columbus and his fellow adventurers thought they had found a quick, westerly route to the “Indies” – but of course you already knew this.
1.2 billion or 1,200 millions!! What is more, it is reported that 65 percent (or 775 million) of those are under 35 and will become married and produce children… At the current “new and highly recommended” rate of two children per couple (90 percent of marriages are still arranged by the parents… given divorce rates, perhaps we should be doing this in Chile), the population is expected to grow by 18 million a year until 2050 when all prediction models fail.
That means India will grow by more than the current population of Chile every year! This is mindboggling but very exciting for Chile as it continues to export copper at US$4 a pound to an economy which is literally “on fire”, outgrowing China in terms of population and economic growth rates. China does have an edge, though, as it owns more American debt than all other institutions combined, and with California so deep in the hole it is quite possible that the Asian Dragon will simply decide to buy this great state at auction.
But I digress. I have seen my first Tata Nano cars on the roads and they look good - it’s not surprising that every Indian aspires to own one, two or even three. Just imagine 300 million Nanos whizzing around India and another 100 million zipping around other counties. This, of course, will do wonders for the environment but at US$2,000 a pop, with four doors, air conditioning and power steering included, I think I will be buying Mrs. Eneldo one for Christmas.
It is quite remarkable to be a part of the traffic flow in a city like Delhi. There are laws and rules, of course, but these are optional. The horn or claxon is used constantly just to make people aware of your presence and “earn” the right of way. It is most definitely “disorganized chaos” – but it works! Trucks, vans, cars, three wheelers, motorbikes (with a family of FOUR on board, but only the husband wearing a helmet…), bicycles, rickshaws, donkey-pulled carts, horse-pulled carts, pedestrians and, finally, free roaming Brahma cattle and water buffalo – all on the move. However, it struck me that no one ever seems to get upset regardless of the situation. I have witnessed behavior that would cause your average Chilean driver to rant, rave, scream obscenities and, most likely, suffer heart failure. And yet, aside from the use of informative “beep beeps”, there is no road rage. By the way, there are 600 million cell phones in India which are used non-stop, especially by those driving some form of transport!
But is Chile making the most of its “partial” trade agreement with India signed in 2006? What if every Indian ate half an avocado every week? Or every adult (except Muslims of course) drank just two glasses of Chilean wine a month?
India is on the move and, with a probable population of 2 billion in 2050, Chile should be moving with it. But do we have the imagination to produce value-added products that Indians will buy? Pre-packed curried salmon pieces, for example, could be worth a try. (Ed’s note: Chile’s non-copper exports to India grew an average 26 percent annually between 2005 and 2009, reaching US$114 million)
There is just one problem: aside from copper and oil (Chile has the first but none of the second), India is remarkably self-sufficient and certainly capable of feeding 1.2 billion – and then some.
India is a land of contrasts: poverty, wealth, noise, smells, hustle and bustle, infinite colors, traffic beyond belief and yet a smile on almost every face I saw. We could learn from this and “live more kindly” to ourselves, our neighbors and everyone we meet.
Karma to all and I will write from Bhutan – my next assignment.