Hordes of frenzied shoppers had barely descended upon shopping malls and retail stores at the crack of dawn on the day now dubbed Black Friday when the breathless speculation about how weak or strong this year's holiday shopping season began. The dirty little secret, however, is that the day is actually not a very good predictor of holiday sales overall. "No matter how successful Black Friday is, it's the weeks before and after Christmas that will determine how successful of a holiday season it is," says Scott Krugman, of the National Retail Federation (NRF).

TIME reports.