![\"untitled\"](\"http:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/grafico_columna-econo-1024x612.jpg\")
<\/p>\n[:es]Donald Trump sorprendi\u00f3 al\u00a0mundo, m\u00e1s espec\u00edficamente\u00a0a expertos en el mercado, en\u00a0estudios de opini\u00f3n y medios\u00a0de comunicaci\u00f3n, al ganar\u00a0las elecciones presidenciales de Estados
\nUnidos el mes pasado. Quiz\u00e1s a\u00fan m\u00e1s\u00a0sorprendente para muchos ha sido la respuesta\u00a0despu\u00e9s de las elecciones. A pesar\u00a0de los temores de que un triunfo del se\u00f1or\u00a0Trump podr\u00eda resultar en una importante\u00a0crisis financiera y econ\u00f3mica mundial, los\u00a0mercados y el sentimiento son m\u00e1s altos,\u00a0mientras que las expectativas econ\u00f3micas\u00a0para Estados Unidos est\u00e1n aumentando\u00a0debido a las esperadas iniciativas pro\u00a0mercado. Algunos incluso lo llaman un\u00a0importante cambio de paradigma.<\/p>\n
Mientras tanto, el tono post electoral\u00a0del se\u00f1or Trump se ha vuelto m\u00e1s conciliador, lo que sugiere que la ret\u00f3rica de la\u00a0campa\u00f1a no se traducir\u00e1 en programas\u00a0directos y altamente pol\u00e9micos, sino en\u00a0pol\u00edticas m\u00e1s amplias y sensatas. Aunque\u00a0los mercados se han tranquilizado con
\nesto, la incertidumbre permanece, especialmente\u00a0en lo que se refiere a la pol\u00edtica\u00a0comercial y la ejecuci\u00f3n de iniciativas\u00a0de crecimiento, incluyendo recortes de\u00a0impuestos y gastos en infraestructura,\u00a0lo que los c\u00e1lculos actuales sugieren que\u00a0ampliar\u00e1 el d\u00e9ficit fiscal.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Hasta ahora Chile ha sido un inesperado\u00a0beneficiario de las pol\u00edticas proyectadas de\u00a0Trump. Los precios del cobre han subido\u00a0a sus niveles m\u00e1s altos en m\u00e1s de un\u00a0a\u00f1o, probablemente por la debilidad del\u00a0renminbi chino, que comenz\u00f3 a principios\u00a0de octubre y que s\u00f3lo ha avanzado con la\u00a0ret\u00f3rica dura del se\u00f1or Trump, mientras\u00a0que las expectativas de aumento del gasto\u00a0en infraestructura en Estados Unidos quiz\u00e1\u00a0tambi\u00e9n haya contribuido a esta alza. Esto ha ayudado a frenar la depreciaci\u00f3n\u00a0del peso chileno, que ha ca\u00eddo menos que\u00a0otras monedas importantes en LatAm y mercados emergentes. Adem\u00e1s, con la\u00a0expectativa de pol\u00edticas comerciales m\u00e1s\u00a0nacionalistas en Estados Unidos, China\u00a0se ha convertido en el motor clave de la\u00a0globalizaci\u00f3n, buscando fortalecer las relaciones comerciales con socios clave,\u00a0como Chile, seg\u00fan fue reiterado en la reciente conferencia APEC en Lima, Per\u00fa.<\/p>\n
Aunque por ahora Chile parece estar bien posicionado, los riesgos se mantienen\u00a0presentes. Lo m\u00e1s notable es que el\u00a0incremento del precio del cobre parece\u00a0insostenible, ya que las bolsas chinas
\ntoman medidas para frenar la especulaci\u00f3n\u00a0-mientras que los an\u00e1lisis fundamentados\u00a0a\u00fan sugieren un super\u00e1vit en\u00a02017-, incluso considerando un auge de\u00a0la infraestructura estadounidense que no se ve muy intensivo en uso de cobre. Una\u00a0correcci\u00f3n probablemente pondr\u00eda presi\u00f3n\u00a0sobre el peso chileno, lo que podr\u00eda frenar\u00a0el poder adquisitivo de los consumidores,\u00a0que ha sido la \u00fanica fuente de crecimiento\u00a0en los \u00faltimos meses. Al mismo tiempo,\u00a0pondr\u00eda al Banco Central en una posici\u00f3n\u00a0dif\u00edcil en cuanto a la pol\u00edtica monetaria,\u00a0especialmente con las expectativas del\u00a0mercado de un recorte de tasas a principios\u00a0de 2017. El aumento de las tasas\u00a0en Estados Unidos s\u00f3lo complicar\u00eda a\u00fan\u00a0m\u00e1s este escenario, impactando el costo\u00a0del capital y potencialmente los precios\u00a0de los activos.<\/p>\n
Adem\u00e1s, aunque a veces se pasa por alto, Estados Unidos sigue siendo un\u00a0socio comercial relevante, como destino\u00a0de 14% de las exportaciones chilenas y\u00a0fuente de 18% de sus importaciones. Como\u00a0lo indican las cifras, Chile mantiene un\u00a0d\u00e9ficit comercial con Estados Unidos que\u00a0ha llegado a m\u00e1s de US$1.000 millones en\u00a0lo que va del a\u00f1o, lo que lo convierte en\u00a0uno de los mayores d\u00e9ficits comerciales\u00a0bilaterales que mantiene el pa\u00eds. Mientras\u00a0tanto, las principales exportaciones chilenas\u00a0a Estados Unidos no son commodities,\u00a0sino bienes industriales y agr\u00edcolas, que
\nson m\u00e1s susceptibles a los ajustes tarifarios.<\/p>\n
Esta din\u00e1mica pone a Chile en una posici\u00f3n m\u00e1s precaria que lo que sugieren\u00a0los principales datos, especialmente si el\u00a0se\u00f1or Trump se vuelve m\u00e1s agresivo en\u00a0la pol\u00edtica comercial.\u00a0Cualquier materializaci\u00f3n de estos riesgos s\u00f3lo complicar\u00eda un escenario\u00a0ya precario para Chile en 2017, con el\u00a0desempleo en alza, las condiciones crediticias\u00a0m\u00e1s estrictas, los recursos monetario y fiscal limitados y con una elecci\u00f3n presidencial que podr\u00eda resultar muy re\u00f1ida.<\/p>\n
POR BRIAN P. CHASE<\/strong> Meanwhile, Mr. Trump\u2019s post-election tone has become more conciliatory, suggesting that the campaign rhetoric will not translate into direct and highly controversial programs, but rather broader, more sensible policies.\u00a0 Although markets have taken comfort in this, uncertainty remains, especially as it relates to trade policy and the execution of pro-growth initiatives, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, which current calculations suggest will widen the fiscal deficit.<\/p>\n Thus far, Chile has been an unexpected beneficiary of projected Trump policies.\u00a0 Copper prices have soared to their highest levels in more than a year, likely on Chinese Renminbi weakness, which began in early October and has only advanced through Trump\u2019s tough rhetoric, while expectations for increased infrastructure spending in the US may have also contributed to the rally.\u00a0 This has also helped curb depreciation of the Chilean Peso, which has fallen less than other major currencies in LatAm and Emerging Markets.\u00a0 Furthermore, with the expectation of more nationalistic trade policies in the US, China has emerged as the key engine of globalization, looking to enhance trading relationships with key partners, including Chile, as reiterated during the recent APEC conference in Lima, Peru.<\/p>\n Although Chile appears well positioned for now, risks remain.\u00a0 Most notably, the copper price rally appears unsustainable as Chinese exchanges take measures to curb speculation, while fundamentals still suggest a surplus heading into 2017, even considering a US infrastructure boom, which is unlikely to be very copper intensive.\u00a0 A correction would likely put pressure on the Chilean Peso, which could curb purchasing power for consumers, which have been the only source of growth in recent months, while putting the Central Bank in a tough position when it comes to monetary policy, especially with the market forecasting at least one rate cut in early 2017.\u00a0 Rising rates in the US would only further complicate this scenario, while also affecting the cost of capital and potentially asset prices.<\/p>\n Furthermore, although sometimes overlooked, the US is still a relevant trade partner, as the destination of 14% of Chile\u2019s exports and the source of 18% of its imports.\u00a0 As the figures imply, Chile maintains a trade deficit with the US, which has grown to over US$1bn year-to-date, making it one of the largest bilateral trade deficits that Chile maintains.\u00a0 Meanwhile, Chile\u2019s principal exports to the US are not commodities, but rather industrial and agricultural goods, which are more susceptible to tariff adjustments.\u00a0 These dynamics put Chile in a more precarious position than the headline data suggests, especially if Mr. Trump becomes more aggressive on trade policy.<\/p>\n Any materialization of these risks would only complicate an already precarious scenario for Chile heading into 2017, with unemployment on the rise, credit conditions tighter, limited monetary and fiscal firepower, and what could turn out to be its own contentious presidential election.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [:es]Donald Trump sorprendi\u00f3 al\u00a0mundo, m\u00e1s espec\u00edficamente\u00a0a expertos en el mercado, en\u00a0estudios de opini\u00f3n y medios\u00a0de comunicaci\u00f3n, al ganar\u00a0las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos el mes pasado. Quiz\u00e1s a\u00fan m\u00e1s\u00a0sorprendente para muchos ha sido la respuesta\u00a0despu\u00e9s de las elecciones. A pesar\u00a0de los temores de que un triunfo del se\u00f1or\u00a0Trump podr\u00eda resultar en una importante\u00a0crisis financiera y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9928","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\nPortfolio Manager Head of Andean Equities<\/em>
\nIta\u00fa Asset Management<\/em>[:en]Donald Trump surprised the world, most specifically market pundits, pollsters and the media, by winning the US presidential election last month.\u00a0 Perhaps even more surprising to many has been the post-election response.\u00a0 Despite fears that a Trump win could spark a major global financial and economic crisis, markets and sentiment are higher, while economic forecasts for the US are rising on the back of expected pro-market initiatives. \u00a0Some are even calling it an important paradigm shift.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n