[:es]Robert Y. Shapiro, acad\u00e9mico\u00a0de Ciencias Pol\u00edticas de la Universidad de Columbia<\/p>\n
El experto advierte que la elecci\u00f3n presidencial est\u00e1 demostrando la gran polarizaci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica estadounidense y proyecta que, finalmente, la poblaci\u00f3n elegir\u00e1 \u201ca quien le desagrade menos\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n Por Alejandra Melo<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Previo a su visita a Chile el 27 de septiembre para exponer en la conferencia Outlook on the US Elections, organizada por Columbia Global Centers Santiago, el acad\u00e9mico\u00a0de la Facultad de Ciencias Pol\u00edticas de la Universidad de Columbia, Robert Y. Shapiro, analiz\u00f3 la situaci\u00f3n de la sociedad estadounidense y de los dos candidatos, a solo dos meses de las elecciones -que cataloga- como las m\u00e1s polarizadas e inusuales de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n Haciendo un balance del Gobierno del Presidente Barack Obama y un repaso por las campa\u00f1as de Hillary Clinton y Donald Trump, el acad\u00e9mico enfatiza que solo habr\u00e1 certezas sobre la situaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos (EE.UU.), una vez que se elija a un nuevo presidente.<\/p>\n -Casi al t\u00e9rmino del Gobierno de Barack Obama, \u00bfcu\u00e1l ser\u00e1 su legado?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Su legado se ver\u00e1 como bueno o malo en unos a\u00f1os m\u00e1s. Por el momento, s\u00f3lo podemos hablar de las cosas controvertidas que ha hecho, como -quiz\u00e1- mantener pol\u00edticas econ\u00f3micas m\u00e1s abiertas e impulsar reformas educacionales. No obstante, en t\u00e9rminos del impacto de las reformas durante su administraci\u00f3n, \u00e9stas no fueron sobre temas nuevos.<\/p>\n -\u00bfC\u00f3mo queda EE.UU. en t\u00e9rminos de posicionamiento internacional y local tras la actual administraci\u00f3n?<\/strong><\/p>\n -El pa\u00eds tiene una econom\u00eda m\u00e1s firme y fuerte, una pol\u00edtica exterior m\u00e1s compleja, pero al mismo tiempo est\u00e1 m\u00e1s interiorizado en temas de terrorismo, inmigraci\u00f3n, y tambi\u00e9n m\u00e1s vinculado con Europa.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQuedar\u00e1n temas pendientes?<\/strong><\/p>\n -La situaci\u00f3n en Siria y el contexto m\u00e1s general con Europa, Rusia y China, algunos temas medioambientales a nivel global, la situaci\u00f3n con Ir\u00e1n, Afganist\u00e1n. En t\u00e9rminos econ\u00f3micos, el gran problema es la expansi\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda, subir los sueldos, y resolver problemas con el presupuesto federal. En lo social, los conflictos raciales.<\/p>\n -\u00bfY con Latinoam\u00e9rica?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Obama promovi\u00f3 mucho el debate con pa\u00edses de Latinoam\u00e9rica, lo mismo \u00a0con los tratados y acuerdos de libre comercio, pero falta m\u00e1s en esa \u00e1rea, en especial en las implicancias con Cuba.<\/p>\n -Respecto de la pr\u00f3xima elecci\u00f3n presidencial, <\/strong>\u00bfpodr\u00eda decirse que es la m\u00e1s compleja de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os?<\/strong><\/p>\n -No la m\u00e1s complicada, pero s\u00ed la m\u00e1s inusual de lo que se acostumbra, los pol\u00edticos est\u00e1n disgustados y los candidatos son m\u00e1s apasionados, pero creo que, finalmente, la poblaci\u00f3n elegir\u00e1 a quien les desagrade menos.<\/p>\n -En vista de la polarizaci\u00f3n de candidatos, \u00bfse ir\u00e1 a marcar un hito en la cantidad de votantes?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Quiz\u00e1 cuando los votantes vean que hay mucha diferencia en las encuestas, cada vez m\u00e1s cercanas a la elecci\u00f3n, se van a sentir motivados a votar para dar vuelta ese potencial resultado. Finalmente, es muy probable que voten por quien menos les desagrade, con el fin de que no salga el otro. Se vio algo muy parecido en el Congreso hace un par de a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQui\u00e9nes podr\u00edan marcar una diferencia en los votos?<\/strong><\/p>\n -La gente joven, latinoamericanos y afroamericanos.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n -Tras lo visto en los \u00faltimos d\u00edas, \u00bfqu\u00e9 sector cree que realmente apoya a Donald Trump?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Trump es apoyado por una base del partido republicano, independiente que algunos de ellos est\u00e9n en desacuerdo con ciertos puntos de su discurso. Sin embargo, dentro de ese partido, son s\u00f3lo peque\u00f1os sectores quienes lo apoyan. Tambi\u00e9n est\u00e1n quienes no lo respaldan como candidato, pero que s\u00ed est\u00e1n enojados con el Estado y los dem\u00f3cratasporque perciben en ellos un excesivo gasto en muchos recursos en inmigrantes y no en la gran masa blanca de EE.UU., por ende, el voto de esta gente podr\u00eda ser para el candidato republicano. Tambi\u00e9n existe un grupo de republicanos enojados con sus l\u00edderes, no est\u00e1n de acuerdo con ciertas medidas a nivel de salud en comparaci\u00f3n a otros, con las alzas de impuestos, entre otras cosas, que ha planteado Trump.<\/p>\n -\u00bfCu\u00e1les son los riegos de que Trump salga electo?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Eso depender\u00e1 mucho de quienes vayan a ser sus asesores cuando sea presidente, probablemente y por lo que ha planteado en sus discursos, va a hacer que EE.UU. sea m\u00e1s fuerte en lo militar, pondr\u00e1 mayor restricci\u00f3n a inmigrantes y a temas relacionados con acuerdos de libre comercio; ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s proteccionista con la econom\u00eda local.<\/p>\n -\u00bfC\u00f3mo cree que lograr\u00e1 todo eso?<\/strong><\/p>\n -En el fondo tiene que ver con la relaci\u00f3n que tenga con el pleno del Congreso y\u00a0 en c\u00f3mo la vaya a manejar, si ser\u00e1n receptivos o rechazar\u00e1n sus propuestas o viceversa, deber\u00e1n mediar fuerzas.<\/p>\n -\u00bfC\u00f3mo interpreta la visita de Trump a M\u00e9xico?<\/strong><\/p>\n -S\u00f3lo mostr\u00f3 c\u00f3mo ser\u00e1 si es elegido presidente, plante\u00f3 cu\u00e1les ser\u00edan las nuevas normas. Probablemente, para \u00e9l fue una visita exitosa porque demostr\u00f3 lo que quiere, pese a perder apoyo de la comunidad latina, pero \u00e9l no persigue el camino de mantener buenas relaciones con M\u00e9xico ni con otros latinos, no le interesa. No obstante, s\u00ed perdi\u00f3 apoyo de algunos asesores.<\/p>\n -Acerca de Hillary Clinton, \u00bfcree que de salir electa marcar\u00e1 un precedente en la historia de EE.UU.?<\/strong><\/p>\n -En t\u00e9rminos simb\u00f3licos es importante, pero no cambiar\u00edan muchas cosas respecto de la administraci\u00f3n de Obama.<\/p>\n -\u00bfConsidera que Clinton tiene mayores oportunidades de ser elegida, dado que su contrincante\u00a0 ha perdido adeptos?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Su gran ventaja es que fue senadora y mantiene sus conexiones y experiencia a nivel de gobierno. Adem\u00e1s, se logra relacionar con personas de todos los partidos pol\u00edticos, no s\u00f3lo con dem\u00f3cratas, tiene mejor llegada. Pese a ello, si los dem\u00f3cratas no ganan la mayor\u00eda de los puestos del Congreso, igualmente estar\u00eda perdida, aunque saliera presidenta.<\/p>\n -\u00bfVe como una desventaja que su marido haya sido presidente?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Creo que a los republicanos les molesta que bajo la presidencia de Bill Clinton, Estados Unidos haya logrado tantas cosas, es un tema controversial. Pero Hillary Clinton debe conquistar a nuevos votantes, no a los que ya est\u00e1n claros.<\/p>\n -\u00bfCu\u00e1les cree que son las principales ventajas de Clinton en sus discursos?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Sin duda Hillary Clinton tiene un discurso mucho m\u00e1s claro que el de Trump; ha planteado su posici\u00f3n en temas econ\u00f3micos, geopol\u00edticos y de relaciones con otros pa\u00edses, es mucho m\u00e1s pol\u00edtica. Finalmente, la oportunidad que tiene de ser presidenta es, precisamente, oponi\u00e9ndose a Donald Trump.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n ACUERDO TRANSPAC\u00cdFICO (TPP)<\/strong><\/p>\n -Ambos candidatos se han manifestado en contra del TPP, \u00bfqu\u00e9 efectos podr\u00eda traer esta posici\u00f3n?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Clinton \u00a0tuvo que restarse para ganar los votos que eran de Sanders, quien se opon\u00eda y ya no se puede desdecir. No obstante, seg\u00fan han planteado ambos candidatos, la \u00fanica manera en que se podr\u00eda firmar es que se renegociara de modo que favorezca m\u00e1s a EE.UU. Como est\u00e1 el acuerdo ahora, no es bueno para ellos, por ende, el futuro del TPP depende del nuevo candidato electo.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n -\u00bfC\u00f3mo cree que se manejar\u00eda cada candidato frente a una negativa de la firma del TPP y en la relaci\u00f3n con Chile?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Hillary Clinton tiene mayor experiencia y ser\u00eda una continuaci\u00f3n de Obama, quien aportar\u00e1, probablemente, una mayor estabilidad y mantendr\u00e1 las buenas relaciones. En cambio, Trump tendr\u00e1 que educarse en todos estos temas diplom\u00e1ticos y en la relaci\u00f3n con otros pa\u00edses.[:en]Robert Y. Shapiro, academic in political science from Columbia University<\/p>\n The expert warns that the upcoming presidential election is demonstrating the widespread polarization in American politics and he believes that, ultimately, the electorate will choose \u201cthe candidate they dislike the least\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n By Alejandra Melo<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n Prior to his visit to Chile on 27 September to participate in the conference, Outlook on the US Elections, organized by Columbia Global Centers Santiago, Robert Y. Shapiro, academic from the Department of Political Science from Columbia University, discussed the current state of play in the United States. As such, he addressed the situation of American society as well as the two presidential candidates, just over a month from the election that he describes as the most polarized and unusual in recent history.<\/p>\n Taking stock of the government of President Barack Obama and assessing the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the academic stresses that various uncertainties surrounding the situation in the US will only become clear once a new president has been elected.<\/p>\n With the current administration almost at an end, what will Barack Obama\u2019s legacy be? <\/strong><\/p>\n His legacy will be seen as good or bad in the coming years. For the moment, one can only speak about the polemic decisions he has made, such as, perhaps, maintaining more open economic policies and driving educational reform. Regarding the impact of his reforms, these have not addressed new issues.<\/p>\n What is the international and regional standing of the US following the current administration?<\/strong><\/p>\n The country has a strong and steady economy and a more complex foreign policy. It is, simultaneously, more inward looking in terms of terrorism and immigration, although it is now also more closely associated with Europe.<\/p>\n What are the key pending issues?<\/strong><\/p>\n These include the situation in Syria and the more general context regarding Europe, Russia and China, certain environmental issues at the global level, as well as the state of affairs in Iran and Afghanistan. In economic terms, the major problem is ensuring economic growth, raising salaries and resolving problems with the federal budget. Regarding social concerns, the pending issue is the ongoing problem of racism in the country.<\/p>\n And regarding Latin America?<\/strong><\/p>\n Obama has encouraged increased dialogue with Latin American countries, as well as further debate on treaties and free trade agreements. However, more must be done in this area, especially in terms of their implications for Cuba.<\/p>\n Could the upcoming presidential election be described as the most complex in recent years?<\/strong><\/p>\n It is not the most complicated, but it is far more unusual than normal. Politicians are displeased and the candidates are more passionate, but, ultimately, I think the electorate will choose the candidate they dislike the least.<\/p>\n Given the polarizing nature of the candidates, will this mark a milestone in the number of voters?<\/strong><\/p>\n Perhaps when voters see that the opinion polls are close in the lead-up to the election, they will be more motivated to cast their ballot to influence the result. It is highly likely that people will vote for the candidate they dislike the least in order to keep the other one from office. Something very similar occurred in the US Congress a couple of years ago.<\/p>\n Who could make a real difference to the overall result?<\/strong><\/p>\n Young people, Latin Americans and African Americans.<\/p>\n Following recent events in the race for the White House, which sections of society do you think are really supporting Donald Trump?<\/strong><\/p>\n Trump is supported by a base of the Republican Party, regardless of whether they disagree with some of the things he has said. However, within this party there are only small sections of people who actually support him. There are also people who do not necessarily like him as a candidate, but who are angry with the federal government and the Democrats because they perceive them to have overseen excessive spending on immigrants, in preference to the white majority in the US. These sections could be those who vote for the Republican candidate. There is also a group of Republicans that is angry with national leaders and who do not agree with certain measures taken in the field of healthcare and the raising of taxes, for example, and these people are more supportive of certain proposals made by Trump.<\/p>\n What are the risks if Trump is elected?<\/strong><\/p>\n That depends heavily on who his advisors would be if he were president. He has stated in his speeches that he will make the US stronger militarily and that he will restrict immigration as well as certain areas relating to free trade agreements. Overall, the country will be more protectionist.<\/p>\n How do you think he will put these kinds of plans into practice?<\/strong><\/p>\n Ultimately, it all depends on the relationship he has with Congress and how he handles it; whether the Senate and the House of Representatives are receptive or not to his proposals and how relations are mediated.<\/p>\n How do you interpret Trump’s trip to Mexico?<\/strong><\/p>\n It showed how he will be if he is elected president and it helped to clarify what we might expect in terms of the new norm. It was probably a successful trip for him because he was able to show what he wants, despite losing the support of the Latino community. But he is not following the path of maintaining good relations with Mexico or with other Latin American countries, nor is he interested in doing so. Nevertheless, he did lose the support of certain advisors.<\/p>\n Regarding Hillary Clinton, do you think that her election would mark a precedent in US history?<\/strong><\/p>\n Symbolically it is important, but not much would change in regard to the Obama administration.<\/p>\n Do you believe that Clinton has a better chance of being elected, given that her rival has lost a number of supporters?<\/strong><\/p>\n Her major advantage is that she was a senator and she has connections and experience at the global level. Furthermore, she has managed to build relations with people from across all political parties, not only Democrats, and she therefore has a better chance. However, if the Democrats fail to win a majority in Congress she will have lost anyway, despite being president.<\/p>\n Do you think it is a disadvantage that her husband is a former president?<\/strong><\/p>\n I think that Republicans are frustrated that under the presidency of Bill Clinton, the US achieved many things. It is a controversial topic, but the key challenge for Hillary Clinton is to win over new voters, not those who have already made their minds up.<\/p>\n What do you think are the main advantages of Clinton in terms of her overall discourse? <\/strong><\/p>\n Without a doubt, Hillary Clinton has a far clearer discourse than Trump; she has set out her position in terms of the economy, geopolitics and relations with other countries and she is far more political. Finally, her greatest chance of becoming president is precisely her opposition to Donald Trump.<\/p>\n TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP)<\/strong><\/p>\n Both candidates have expressed their opposition to the TPP. What impact might this have?<\/strong><\/p>\n Clinton had to take a step back on this issue to win the votes of the supporters of Bernie Sanders, who she opposed, and she cannot backtrack now. However, according to what both candidates have said, the TPP will only be signed if the agreement is renegotiated in a way that is more favorable to the US. Neither candidate supports the agreement as it currently stands and, therefore, the future of the TPP will depend on the newly elected candidate.<\/p>\n How do you think each candidate would handle matters following a refusal to sign the TPP and in terms of relations with Chile?<\/strong><\/p>\n Hillary Clinton has greater experience and would be a continuation of the Obama administration. She will probably favor greater stability and look to maintain solid relations. Trump, on the other hand, will have to educate himself about the workings of diplomacy and how to maintain relations with other countries.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [:es]Robert Y. Shapiro, acad\u00e9mico\u00a0de Ciencias Pol\u00edticas de la Universidad de Columbia \u201c\u00c9stas son las elecciones m\u00e1s inusuales de los \u00faltimos tiempos\u201d El experto advierte que la elecci\u00f3n presidencial est\u00e1 demostrando la gran polarizaci\u00f3n de la pol\u00edtica estadounidense y proyecta que, finalmente, la poblaci\u00f3n elegir\u00e1 \u201ca quien le desagrade menos\u201d. Por Alejandra Melo Previo a su […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9826","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\u201cThis is the most unusual election in recent history\u201d<\/strong><\/h2>\n