![\"\"](\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/photo.jpg\")
<\/h5>\nEl economista plantea que si bien la econom\u00eda mundial depender\u00e1, entre otros, de los efectos tras el Brexit y de las elecciones estadounidenses, los pa\u00edses emergentes -donde destacan varios sudamericanos- tienen amplias posibilidades de reactivar la econom\u00eda mundial<\/em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/h5>\nTras su paso por Chile en junio pasado, en el marco del encuentro Pa\u00edses emergentes: El desaf\u00edo de mejorar la Productividad, -organizado por Principal Financial Group, AmCham Chile y Cuprum AFP- y previo al refer\u00e9ndum del Reino Unido que aprob\u00f3 su salida de la Uni\u00f3n Europea (UE), el director ejecutivo y economista jefe de Principal Global Investors, Robert Baur, analiz\u00f3 la econom\u00eda internacional y posibles efectos del Brexit.<\/p>\n
Con una visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s bien optimista ante el panorama econ\u00f3mico, adelanta que la econom\u00eda de Estados Unidos avanza a paso lento, pero seguro.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfVe una recuperaci\u00f3n completa de la econom\u00eda de EE.UU. en el mediano plazo?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Se empieza a notar un crecimiento lento, pero seguro. Colaps\u00f3 el petr\u00f3leo, subi\u00f3 mucho el precio del d\u00f3lar y los inversores vieron que era un mal panorama durante la segunda mitad de 2015 e inicio de 2016. Eso dio miedo a los inversionistas, pero ya se retom\u00f3 el ritmo econ\u00f3mico. El mercado inmobiliario est\u00e1 tomando fuerza, los salarios est\u00e1n aumentando y el poder adquisitivo de las familias est\u00e1 volviendo a ser fuerte; se ve m\u00e1s gasto y se prev\u00e9 que a fin de a\u00f1o crezca 2%, lo mismo que se ve desde que comenz\u00f3 la crisis econ\u00f3mica en 2009.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfQu\u00e9 ocurrir\u00e1 con el desempleo?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Baj\u00f3 de 5% al 4,7%. Esto no es una cifra abismante y se debe, b\u00e1sicamente, a que la fuerza de trabajo se ha ido restringiendo. El n\u00famero de desempleados creci\u00f3 de 125 mil a 130 mil en mayo pasado, pero este cambio paulatino se ha dado porque no hay tanta gente activamente buscando empleo.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfQu\u00e9 efectos podr\u00eda tener un eventual triunfo electoral de Donald Trump?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Si contin\u00faa con la ret\u00f3rica anti libre mercado que ha tomado su campa\u00f1a en los \u00faltimos meses, los efectos podr\u00edan ser negativos. Lo mismo al sumar impuestos o demasiadas restricciones a sus socios econ\u00f3micos. Sin embargo, si estuviese de acuerdo en trabajar con el Congreso en eliminar regulaciones que son innecesarias, se ver\u00eda un mayor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfCu\u00e1les ser\u00edan los posibles efectos del Brexit en la econom\u00eda de la Uni\u00f3n Europea?<\/strong><\/p>\n-En una etapa inicial habr\u00eda mucha incertidumbre, ya que tanto la libra esterlina como el euro caer\u00edan y tambi\u00e9n el yuan chino porque el mercado brit\u00e1nico es el principal socio econ\u00f3mico de China. En cambio, el d\u00f3lar y el yen japon\u00e9s, subir\u00edan. Adicionalmente, las exportaciones de Reino Unido se ver\u00edan afectadas porque habr\u00eda m\u00e1s restricciones para comercializar dentro de la UE. Hay que recordar que la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica se reforz\u00f3 much\u00edsimo gracias al bloque, al tener libre paso de personas y bienes hacia pa\u00edses vecinos y sin mayores restricciones para sus exportaciones. No obstante, la principal consecuencia es que \u00e9ste incentive a otros pa\u00edses a dejar la Uni\u00f3n. En los pa\u00edses bajos ya se habla sobre el tema, y en c\u00f3mo el resultado podr\u00eda impulsar a otras naciones a hacer lo mismo, lo que tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda desestabilizar la econom\u00eda global.<\/p>\n
-Ante la salida del Reino Unido, \u00bfcu\u00e1l ser\u00eda en rol de Alemania en la UE?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Alemania es sin duda uno de los l\u00edderes en la econom\u00eda de la UE y deber\u00e1 tener un rol m\u00e1s protag\u00f3nico. Su tasa de desempleo es de 6%, un r\u00e9cord, porque no hab\u00eda una cifra as\u00ed desde que las dos Alemanias se unificaron en los a\u00f1os noventa. Por otro lado, la crisis inmobiliaria se est\u00e1 manejando bien, el precio de las casas est\u00e1 aumentando al igual que los salarios, est\u00e1n yendo bien dentro de la econom\u00eda europea.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfCu\u00e1les deber\u00edan ser las principales preocupaciones tras el Brexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Primero la inmigraci\u00f3n porque en pa\u00edses fuertes como Alemania \u00e9sta hace muy bien en t\u00e9rminos de empleo, pero en Grecia, cuya tasa de desempleo es a\u00fan muy alta, es un problema. El resultado depender\u00e1 de cada pa\u00eds. La segunda ser\u00edan las medidas que tome Bruselas y, claro, la gente desear\u00eda tener mayor influencia dentro de este cuerpo regulador que es el Parlamento Europeo.<\/p>\n
Efecto China<\/strong><\/p>\n-Respecto de Asia, \u00bfcree que el paquete de medidas de est\u00edmulo que lanz\u00f3 el gobierno chino para enfrentar la desaceleraci\u00f3n es suficiente?<\/strong><\/p>\n-En los \u00faltimos 35 a\u00f1os China ha crecido cerca de 10% econ\u00f3micamente; sus inversiones se incrementaron en forma importante, parte de ellas han provocado un super\u00e1vit y tambi\u00e9n han sido financiadas por la deuda que ha sido grand\u00edsima, esta \u00faltima ha crecido mucho m\u00e1s que la econom\u00eda en s\u00ed. Van a continuar con ella. Hoy no se pueden tomar mayores medidas, m\u00e1s que estabilizarla, ya que no va a deteriorarse, sino a mantenerse.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfQu\u00e9 pas\u00f3 con la promesa de los emergentes? De los BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sud\u00e1frica) pasamos a las TIKS (Taiw\u00e1n, India, Korea y Sud\u00e1frica)\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n-Ya se vio un boom en los \u00faltimos 15 a\u00f1os, sobre todo con China, pero despu\u00e9s de un boom econ\u00f3mico, siempre vienen las r\u00e9plicas, \u00bfel resultado? la gente se vuelve euf\u00f3rica, pide pr\u00e9stamos y ahora hay que observar c\u00f3mo se toma el sentido de los resultados de este boom. Hay que esperar.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfQu\u00e9 pa\u00edses son candidatos a mostrar las mejores cifras en los pr\u00f3ximos dos a tres a\u00f1os?<\/strong><\/p>\n-A nivel global podr\u00eda seguir pujante la econom\u00eda india, quienes est\u00e1n haciendo reformas a su sistema pol\u00edtico. Lo mismo sucede en Chile, y tambi\u00e9n en Argentina y M\u00e9xico que tienen un crecimiento a la par con Estados Unidos y Per\u00fa, con los cambios que ya se han provocado, como la reducci\u00f3n de impuestos y menores restricciones en su econom\u00eda en el \u00faltimo tiempo. A ellos se podr\u00eda sumar Filipinas. Estos pa\u00edses deber\u00edan seguir teniendo un crecimiento constante.<\/p>\n
-Menciona a Chile dentro de las nuevas econom\u00edas pujantes, \u00bfhacia d\u00f3nde debe apuntar el pa\u00eds para avanzar en materia econ\u00f3mica?<\/strong><\/p>\n-Lo principal es no depender de exportaciones, deben tomar parte de esos recursos y comenzar a manufacturarlos. El trabajo del Gobierno ahora es incentivar la innovaci\u00f3n, invertir, reducir impuestos y tener un poder judicial independiente, proveer del ambiente para que la gente pueda sentirse m\u00e1s libre y c\u00f3moda, solo as\u00ed podr\u00e1n tener una mejor calidad de vida y eso ayudar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda.[:en]The US: \u201cslow but steady growth\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\nThe economist suggests that while the world economy will depend on, among other factors, the impact of Brexit and the elections in the US, emerging countries, including a number of South American nations, have a significant chance to revive global growth. <\/em><\/p>\nFollowing his visit to Chile in June as part of the meeting, Emerging Countries: The Challenge of Improving Productivity, organized by Principal Financial Group, AmCham Chile and Cuprum AFP, which took place prior to the United Kingdom\u2019s vote to leave the European Union (EU), the Executive Director and Chief Global Economist of Principal Global Investors, Robert Baur, discussed the international economy and the possible effects of Brexit.<\/p>\n
With a relatively optimistic view of the economic outlook, he anticipates that the US economy will continue to experience slow but steady growth.<\/p>\n
– Can you see a complete recovery of the US economy, in the medium term?<\/strong><\/p>\n– You are beginning to notice slow but steady growth. The oil price collapsed, the dollar rose greatly in value and investors had a bad outlook during the second half of 2015 and the beginning of 2016. This spooked investors, but the economic pace has resumed. The real estate market is gaining strength, wages are rising and the purchasing power of families is returning; spending is up and expected to grow by 2% by the end of the year, which is the same as at the beginning of the financial crisis in 2009.<\/p>\n
– What will happen in terms of unemployment? <\/strong><\/p>\n– It has fallen from 5% to 4.7%. This is not a terrible figure and is essentially the result of the labor force being restricted. Unemployment grew from 125,000 to 130,000 in May, but this gradual change is due to fewer people actively seeking work.<\/p>\n
– What impact might the election of Donald Trump as President have?<\/strong><\/p>\n– If he continues with the anti-free market rhetoric of his campaign in recent months, the results could be negative. The same will happen if new taxes are introduced or if too many restrictions are placed on the country\u2019s economic partners. However, if he agreed to work with Congress to eliminate unnecessary regulations, there would be improved economic growth.<\/p>\n
– What might be the effects of Brexit on the European Union\u2019s economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n– Initially, there will be a great amount of uncertainty, meaning that the pound sterling as well as the euro could fall, in addition to the Chinese renminbi, since the British market is the main economic partner of China. In contrast, the dollar and the Japanese yen could well rise. Furthermore, UK exports could be affected because there may be greater restrictions on trade with the EU. It must be remembered that the British economy was greatly strengthened thanks to the bloc, due to the free movement of people and goods to and from neighboring countries and without export restrictions. However, the main consequence could be to incentivize other countries to leave as well. The issue has been discussed in the Netherlands, and if others indeed follow suit, it could destabilize the entire global economy.<\/p>\n
– If the UK leaves, what will the role of Germany be in the EU?<\/strong><\/p>\n– Germany is clearly one of the leading economies of the EU and it should play a more prominent role. Its unemployment rate is 6%, a record, since a figure like this has not been achieved since German reunification in the 1990s. On the other hand, the real estate crisis is being handled well, house prices are rising along with wages, and things are going smoothly in the European economy.<\/p>\n
– What might be the main concerns following Brexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n– Firstly immigration, because strong countries like Germany are doing well in terms of employment, but in Greece, whose unemployment rate is still very high, it is a problem. The outcome would depend on each individual country. Secondly, the measures taken by Brussels.\u00a0 Clearly, people would like greater influence inside the regulatory body that is the European Parliament.<\/p>\n
The China effect<\/strong><\/p>\n– Regarding Asia, do you think the package of stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government in response to the downturn is sufficient?<\/strong><\/p>\n– In the last 35 years, China has achieved close to 10% economic growth; its investments have increased significantly, some of which have created a surplus. Others, however, have been financed by debt, which is huge and has grown to a far greater extent than the economy itself. Today, further steps cannot be taken, other than to stabilize the debt, and it will not simply disappear; it is here to stay.<\/p>\n
– What happened to the promise of the emerging nations? From the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) we have moved on to the TIKS (Taiwan, India, Korea and South Africa)\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n– We have already seen a boom in the last 15 years, especially in China, but after an economic boom there are always consequences. The result? People become euphoric, they apply for loans and then it proves necessary to see how to make sense of the results of the boom. We will have to wait and see.<\/p>\n
– Which countries are possible candidates for improved performance over the next two or three years?<\/strong><\/p>\nAt the global level, the Indian economy could continue to thrive, with reforms of the country\u2019s political system underway. The same is occurring in Chile, as well as in Argentina and Mexico, who are experiencing growth on a par with the United States and Peru, given the recent changes implemented such as lower taxes and fewer economic restrictions. The Philippines can also be added to this list. These countries should continue to enjoy ongoing growth.<\/p>\n
– You mentioned Chile as among the new, well-performing economies. On what should the country focus in order to secure economic progress?<\/strong><\/p>\n– The main priority should not be to depend on exports, using instead some of these resources to begin manufacturing. The work of the government now is to incentivize innovation, investment, reduce taxes and have an independent judiciary, providing an environment in which people can feel more free and comfortable. Only then can you have a better quality of life which, in turn, will benefit the economy.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
[:es] El economista plantea que si bien la econom\u00eda mundial depender\u00e1, entre otros, de los efectos tras el Brexit y de las elecciones estadounidenses, los pa\u00edses emergentes -donde destacan varios sudamericanos- tienen amplias posibilidades de reactivar la econom\u00eda mundial.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9724","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
[:es]Entrevista a Robert Baur, director ejecutivo de Principal Global Investors "Se empieza a notar un crecimiento de EE.UU. lento, pero seguro"[:en]Robert Baur, Executive Director and Chief Global Economist of Principal Global Investors[:] - AmCham Chile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/entrevista-a-robert-baur-director-ejecutivo-y-economista-jefe-de-principal-global-investors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:es]Entrevista a Robert Baur, director ejecutivo de Principal Global Investors "Se empieza a notar un crecimiento de EE.UU. lento, pero seguro"[:en]Robert Baur, Executive Director and Chief Global Economist of Principal Global Investors[:] - AmCham Chile\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[:es] El economista plantea que si bien la econom\u00eda mundial depender\u00e1, entre otros, de los efectos tras el Brexit y de las elecciones estadounidenses, los pa\u00edses emergentes -donde destacan varios sudamericanos- tienen amplias posibilidades de reactivar la econom\u00eda mundial.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/entrevista-a-robert-baur-director-ejecutivo-y-economista-jefe-de-principal-global-investors\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AmCham Chile\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2021-06-01T15:07:58+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/07\/photo.jpg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"11 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/entrevista-a-robert-baur-director-ejecutivo-y-economista-jefe-de-principal-global-investors\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/entrevista-a-robert-baur-director-ejecutivo-y-economista-jefe-de-principal-global-investors\/\",\"name\":\"[:es]Entrevista a Robert Baur, director ejecutivo de Principal Global Investors \\\"Se empieza a notar un crecimiento de EE.UU. lento, pero seguro\\\"[:en]Robert Baur, Executive Director and Chief Global Economist of Principal Global Investors[:] - 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-Se empieza a notar un crecimiento lento, pero seguro. Colaps\u00f3 el petr\u00f3leo, subi\u00f3 mucho el precio del d\u00f3lar y los inversores vieron que era un mal panorama durante la segunda mitad de 2015 e inicio de 2016. Eso dio miedo a los inversionistas, pero ya se retom\u00f3 el ritmo econ\u00f3mico. El mercado inmobiliario est\u00e1 tomando fuerza, los salarios est\u00e1n aumentando y el poder adquisitivo de las familias est\u00e1 volviendo a ser fuerte; se ve m\u00e1s gasto y se prev\u00e9 que a fin de a\u00f1o crezca 2%, lo mismo que se ve desde que comenz\u00f3 la crisis econ\u00f3mica en 2009.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfQu\u00e9 ocurrir\u00e1 con el desempleo?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Baj\u00f3 de 5% al 4,7%. Esto no es una cifra abismante y se debe, b\u00e1sicamente, a que la fuerza de trabajo se ha ido restringiendo. El n\u00famero de desempleados creci\u00f3 de 125 mil a 130 mil en mayo pasado, pero este cambio paulatino se ha dado porque no hay tanta gente activamente buscando empleo.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQu\u00e9 efectos podr\u00eda tener un eventual triunfo electoral de Donald Trump?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Si contin\u00faa con la ret\u00f3rica anti libre mercado que ha tomado su campa\u00f1a en los \u00faltimos meses, los efectos podr\u00edan ser negativos. Lo mismo al sumar impuestos o demasiadas restricciones a sus socios econ\u00f3micos. Sin embargo, si estuviese de acuerdo en trabajar con el Congreso en eliminar regulaciones que son innecesarias, se ver\u00eda un mayor crecimiento econ\u00f3mico.<\/p>\n -\u00bfCu\u00e1les ser\u00edan los posibles efectos del Brexit en la econom\u00eda de la Uni\u00f3n Europea?<\/strong><\/p>\n -En una etapa inicial habr\u00eda mucha incertidumbre, ya que tanto la libra esterlina como el euro caer\u00edan y tambi\u00e9n el yuan chino porque el mercado brit\u00e1nico es el principal socio econ\u00f3mico de China. En cambio, el d\u00f3lar y el yen japon\u00e9s, subir\u00edan. Adicionalmente, las exportaciones de Reino Unido se ver\u00edan afectadas porque habr\u00eda m\u00e1s restricciones para comercializar dentro de la UE. Hay que recordar que la econom\u00eda brit\u00e1nica se reforz\u00f3 much\u00edsimo gracias al bloque, al tener libre paso de personas y bienes hacia pa\u00edses vecinos y sin mayores restricciones para sus exportaciones. No obstante, la principal consecuencia es que \u00e9ste incentive a otros pa\u00edses a dejar la Uni\u00f3n. En los pa\u00edses bajos ya se habla sobre el tema, y en c\u00f3mo el resultado podr\u00eda impulsar a otras naciones a hacer lo mismo, lo que tambi\u00e9n podr\u00eda desestabilizar la econom\u00eda global.<\/p>\n -Ante la salida del Reino Unido, \u00bfcu\u00e1l ser\u00eda en rol de Alemania en la UE?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Alemania es sin duda uno de los l\u00edderes en la econom\u00eda de la UE y deber\u00e1 tener un rol m\u00e1s protag\u00f3nico. Su tasa de desempleo es de 6%, un r\u00e9cord, porque no hab\u00eda una cifra as\u00ed desde que las dos Alemanias se unificaron en los a\u00f1os noventa. Por otro lado, la crisis inmobiliaria se est\u00e1 manejando bien, el precio de las casas est\u00e1 aumentando al igual que los salarios, est\u00e1n yendo bien dentro de la econom\u00eda europea.<\/p>\n -\u00bfCu\u00e1les deber\u00edan ser las principales preocupaciones tras el Brexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Primero la inmigraci\u00f3n porque en pa\u00edses fuertes como Alemania \u00e9sta hace muy bien en t\u00e9rminos de empleo, pero en Grecia, cuya tasa de desempleo es a\u00fan muy alta, es un problema. El resultado depender\u00e1 de cada pa\u00eds. La segunda ser\u00edan las medidas que tome Bruselas y, claro, la gente desear\u00eda tener mayor influencia dentro de este cuerpo regulador que es el Parlamento Europeo.<\/p>\n Efecto China<\/strong><\/p>\n -Respecto de Asia, \u00bfcree que el paquete de medidas de est\u00edmulo que lanz\u00f3 el gobierno chino para enfrentar la desaceleraci\u00f3n es suficiente?<\/strong><\/p>\n -En los \u00faltimos 35 a\u00f1os China ha crecido cerca de 10% econ\u00f3micamente; sus inversiones se incrementaron en forma importante, parte de ellas han provocado un super\u00e1vit y tambi\u00e9n han sido financiadas por la deuda que ha sido grand\u00edsima, esta \u00faltima ha crecido mucho m\u00e1s que la econom\u00eda en s\u00ed. Van a continuar con ella. Hoy no se pueden tomar mayores medidas, m\u00e1s que estabilizarla, ya que no va a deteriorarse, sino a mantenerse.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQu\u00e9 pas\u00f3 con la promesa de los emergentes? De los BRICS (Brasil, Rusia, India, China y Sud\u00e1frica) pasamos a las TIKS (Taiw\u00e1n, India, Korea y Sud\u00e1frica)\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n -Ya se vio un boom en los \u00faltimos 15 a\u00f1os, sobre todo con China, pero despu\u00e9s de un boom econ\u00f3mico, siempre vienen las r\u00e9plicas, \u00bfel resultado? la gente se vuelve euf\u00f3rica, pide pr\u00e9stamos y ahora hay que observar c\u00f3mo se toma el sentido de los resultados de este boom. Hay que esperar.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQu\u00e9 pa\u00edses son candidatos a mostrar las mejores cifras en los pr\u00f3ximos dos a tres a\u00f1os?<\/strong><\/p>\n -A nivel global podr\u00eda seguir pujante la econom\u00eda india, quienes est\u00e1n haciendo reformas a su sistema pol\u00edtico. Lo mismo sucede en Chile, y tambi\u00e9n en Argentina y M\u00e9xico que tienen un crecimiento a la par con Estados Unidos y Per\u00fa, con los cambios que ya se han provocado, como la reducci\u00f3n de impuestos y menores restricciones en su econom\u00eda en el \u00faltimo tiempo. A ellos se podr\u00eda sumar Filipinas. Estos pa\u00edses deber\u00edan seguir teniendo un crecimiento constante.<\/p>\n -Menciona a Chile dentro de las nuevas econom\u00edas pujantes, \u00bfhacia d\u00f3nde debe apuntar el pa\u00eds para avanzar en materia econ\u00f3mica?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Lo principal es no depender de exportaciones, deben tomar parte de esos recursos y comenzar a manufacturarlos. El trabajo del Gobierno ahora es incentivar la innovaci\u00f3n, invertir, reducir impuestos y tener un poder judicial independiente, proveer del ambiente para que la gente pueda sentirse m\u00e1s libre y c\u00f3moda, solo as\u00ed podr\u00e1n tener una mejor calidad de vida y eso ayudar\u00e1 a la econom\u00eda.[:en]The US: \u201cslow but steady growth\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n The economist suggests that while the world economy will depend on, among other factors, the impact of Brexit and the elections in the US, emerging countries, including a number of South American nations, have a significant chance to revive global growth. <\/em><\/p>\n Following his visit to Chile in June as part of the meeting, Emerging Countries: The Challenge of Improving Productivity, organized by Principal Financial Group, AmCham Chile and Cuprum AFP, which took place prior to the United Kingdom\u2019s vote to leave the European Union (EU), the Executive Director and Chief Global Economist of Principal Global Investors, Robert Baur, discussed the international economy and the possible effects of Brexit.<\/p>\n With a relatively optimistic view of the economic outlook, he anticipates that the US economy will continue to experience slow but steady growth.<\/p>\n – Can you see a complete recovery of the US economy, in the medium term?<\/strong><\/p>\n – You are beginning to notice slow but steady growth. The oil price collapsed, the dollar rose greatly in value and investors had a bad outlook during the second half of 2015 and the beginning of 2016. This spooked investors, but the economic pace has resumed. The real estate market is gaining strength, wages are rising and the purchasing power of families is returning; spending is up and expected to grow by 2% by the end of the year, which is the same as at the beginning of the financial crisis in 2009.<\/p>\n – What will happen in terms of unemployment? <\/strong><\/p>\n – It has fallen from 5% to 4.7%. This is not a terrible figure and is essentially the result of the labor force being restricted. Unemployment grew from 125,000 to 130,000 in May, but this gradual change is due to fewer people actively seeking work.<\/p>\n – What impact might the election of Donald Trump as President have?<\/strong><\/p>\n – If he continues with the anti-free market rhetoric of his campaign in recent months, the results could be negative. The same will happen if new taxes are introduced or if too many restrictions are placed on the country\u2019s economic partners. However, if he agreed to work with Congress to eliminate unnecessary regulations, there would be improved economic growth.<\/p>\n – What might be the effects of Brexit on the European Union\u2019s economy?<\/strong><\/p>\n – Initially, there will be a great amount of uncertainty, meaning that the pound sterling as well as the euro could fall, in addition to the Chinese renminbi, since the British market is the main economic partner of China. In contrast, the dollar and the Japanese yen could well rise. Furthermore, UK exports could be affected because there may be greater restrictions on trade with the EU. It must be remembered that the British economy was greatly strengthened thanks to the bloc, due to the free movement of people and goods to and from neighboring countries and without export restrictions. However, the main consequence could be to incentivize other countries to leave as well. The issue has been discussed in the Netherlands, and if others indeed follow suit, it could destabilize the entire global economy.<\/p>\n – If the UK leaves, what will the role of Germany be in the EU?<\/strong><\/p>\n – Germany is clearly one of the leading economies of the EU and it should play a more prominent role. Its unemployment rate is 6%, a record, since a figure like this has not been achieved since German reunification in the 1990s. On the other hand, the real estate crisis is being handled well, house prices are rising along with wages, and things are going smoothly in the European economy.<\/p>\n – What might be the main concerns following Brexit?<\/strong><\/p>\n – Firstly immigration, because strong countries like Germany are doing well in terms of employment, but in Greece, whose unemployment rate is still very high, it is a problem. The outcome would depend on each individual country. Secondly, the measures taken by Brussels.\u00a0 Clearly, people would like greater influence inside the regulatory body that is the European Parliament.<\/p>\n The China effect<\/strong><\/p>\n – Regarding Asia, do you think the package of stimulus measures introduced by the Chinese government in response to the downturn is sufficient?<\/strong><\/p>\n – In the last 35 years, China has achieved close to 10% economic growth; its investments have increased significantly, some of which have created a surplus. Others, however, have been financed by debt, which is huge and has grown to a far greater extent than the economy itself. Today, further steps cannot be taken, other than to stabilize the debt, and it will not simply disappear; it is here to stay.<\/p>\n – What happened to the promise of the emerging nations? From the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) we have moved on to the TIKS (Taiwan, India, Korea and South Africa)\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n – We have already seen a boom in the last 15 years, especially in China, but after an economic boom there are always consequences. The result? People become euphoric, they apply for loans and then it proves necessary to see how to make sense of the results of the boom. We will have to wait and see.<\/p>\n – Which countries are possible candidates for improved performance over the next two or three years?<\/strong><\/p>\n At the global level, the Indian economy could continue to thrive, with reforms of the country\u2019s political system underway. The same is occurring in Chile, as well as in Argentina and Mexico, who are experiencing growth on a par with the United States and Peru, given the recent changes implemented such as lower taxes and fewer economic restrictions. The Philippines can also be added to this list. These countries should continue to enjoy ongoing growth.<\/p>\n – You mentioned Chile as among the new, well-performing economies. On what should the country focus in order to secure economic progress?<\/strong><\/p>\n – The main priority should not be to depend on exports, using instead some of these resources to begin manufacturing. The work of the government now is to incentivize innovation, investment, reduce taxes and have an independent judiciary, providing an environment in which people can feel more free and comfortable. Only then can you have a better quality of life which, in turn, will benefit the economy.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [:es] El economista plantea que si bien la econom\u00eda mundial depender\u00e1, entre otros, de los efectos tras el Brexit y de las elecciones estadounidenses, los pa\u00edses emergentes -donde destacan varios sudamericanos- tienen amplias posibilidades de reactivar la econom\u00eda mundial.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9724","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n