[:es]Martin Redrado, ex presidente del Banco Central de Argentina<\/p>\n
\u201cHemos sido muy complacientes con el buen ciclo de las materias primas\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n El economista del Banco Mundial advierte que los buenos precios de los commodities trajeron crecimiento, pero no se generaron mejoras en productividad, competitividad ni reformas estructurales que elevaran la posici\u00f3n de la regi\u00f3n en el mundo. \u00bfY el cobre? \u201cLos precios del pasado no vuelven\u201d, afirma.<\/em><\/p>\n Martin Redrado, desde su actual cargo como Senior Economics Advisor para el Banco Mundial, le ha tocado monitorear el escenario econ\u00f3mico y pol\u00edtico de Latinoam\u00e9rica, sitial desde donde ha sido testigo de la desaceleraci\u00f3n, la ca\u00edda de los precios de los commodities y los cambios pol\u00edticos.<\/p>\n Plantea que \u201chemos sido muy complacientes con el buen ciclo de las materias primas\u201d un ciclo que ha llevado a tener crecimientos importantes, pero olvidando generar pol\u00edticas para mejorar la productividad y competitividad o reformas estructurales que elevaran la posici\u00f3n de esta parte del continente en el mundo.<\/p>\n \u201cLa regi\u00f3n es muy vol\u00e1til y est\u00e1 expuesta m\u00e1s a lo que ocurra con el precio de materias primas que con las pol\u00edticas internas. Y adem\u00e1s, salvo Chile, no aprovechamos de hacer pol\u00edticas anti c\u00edclicas fiscales, guardar en \u00e9pocas de vacas gordas. Pero, no metamos a Sudam\u00e9rica en el mismo saco, cada pa\u00eds hoy tiene su particularidad\u201d.<\/p>\n -Entre los temas comunes, \u00bfvisualiza un cambio en el ciclo de precio de los commodities industriales como el cobre o el petr\u00f3leo?<\/strong><\/p>\n -El petr\u00f3leo tiene una l\u00f3gica distinta a los otros. Del exceso de oferta que hay en el mercado -hoy se producen en el mundo 96 millones de barriles diarios y se consume unos 91 millones- est\u00e1 cayendo el excedente, y la guerra de precios que hab\u00eda entre Estados Unidos y los productores de la OPEP, aparentemente, ha llegado a su fin. Con lo cual, podemos decir que ha tocado piso, pero tampoco veo que vaya a tener un ascenso muy importante. El resto de los commodities dependen mucho de China y de la volatilidad que pueda tener o no el precio.<\/p>\n -\u00bfY c\u00f3mo ve la recuperaci\u00f3n de China y su impacto en el precio del cobre?<\/strong><\/p>\n -La veo lenta. No veo una ca\u00edda mayor, pero tampoco una subida del precio del cobre ni de la mayor\u00eda de los commodities industriales. Los precios del pasado no vuelven. No me animar\u00eda a dar una proyecci\u00f3n del precio del cobre de largo plazo, pero lo veo estable en lo que resta del a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n -En materia fiscal, \u00bfc\u00f3mo se han comportado los pa\u00edses? \u00bfHay alguno con riesgo fiscal?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Chile ha hecho un buen trabajo fiscal que se ha deteriorado en el \u00faltimo tiempo con una reforma impositiva que ha golpeado fuertemente la inversi\u00f3n y el crecimiento potencial. Y ha tenido reglas, como la del manejo del cobre, que ha sido excelente, pero se ha deteriorado. Brasil y Argentina han tenido d\u00e9biles comportamientos fiscales, no aprovecharon la parte alta del ciclo y ahora est\u00e1n pagando las consecuencias. Per\u00fa y Colombia han tenido una pol\u00edtica fiscal muy racional, de buscar siempre el equilibrio presupuestario y no financiar gasto p\u00fablico de manera espuria, y M\u00e9xico ha tenido una pol\u00edtica fiscal razonable, sin pol\u00edticas anti c\u00edclicas, pero con las reformas del sector petrolero y energ\u00e9tico est\u00e1n captando la atenci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n Brasil hoy tiene un deterioro de la situaci\u00f3n fiscal que est\u00e1 tratando de tormenta perfecta, con una crisis pol\u00edtica, una institucional, una econ\u00f3mica y una de corrupci\u00f3n. Con lo cual, lo fiscal, sin duda, es serio y est\u00e1 en riesgo de bajar la clasificaci\u00f3n de riesgo, es el \u00fanico de la regi\u00f3n. El resto est\u00e1 estable y algunos como Argentina, subiendo.<\/p>\n -\u00bfQu\u00e9 efecto puede esperarse de la crisis brasile\u00f1a en otras econom\u00edas?<\/strong><\/p>\n – Este a\u00f1o, Argentina y Brasil, son los que m\u00e1s van a caer en la regi\u00f3n, y aquellos pa\u00edses que est\u00e1n vinculados comercialmente con Brasil, en particular. En el caso de Argentina, las exportaciones en manufactura industriales hacia Brasil van a disminuir 18%. Pero no es el caso de Chile, pa\u00eds que tiene 30 TLC (Tratados de Libre Comercio) con otras naciones o regiones, por lo que no tiene una dependencia de ese pa\u00eds como sucede en Argentina o, en menor medida, en Uruguay o Paraguay.<\/p>\n -La FED mantuvo las tasas por efecto Brexit y desempleo. \u00bfA\u00fan hay posibilidades que las suba?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Hoy veo al Banco Central de Estados Unidos mucho m\u00e1s pendiente de lo que ocurre en el resto del mundo, sobre todo en China, Europa, en los grandes pa\u00edses emergentes, lo que incluye Am\u00e9rica Latina. Las minutas hablan mucho de la situaci\u00f3n internacional, tema que antes no se hac\u00eda. Hoy por hoy, lo que est\u00e1 diciendo (Janet) Yellen, \u201cestoy mirando a Brexit\u201d, hay mayor cautela. Un alza de la tasa de inter\u00e9s no s\u00f3lo afecta al mundo emergente, sino tambi\u00e9n la diferencial de tasas con el euro, que tiene tasas negativas, lo que puede llevar a una apreciaci\u00f3n excesiva del d\u00f3lar, por lo tanto, hay un sentido de direcci\u00f3n de la Reserva Federal, pero que lo va a hacer muy gradualmente, por lo tanto, no deber\u00eda afectar sensiblemente a Am\u00e9rica Latina.<\/p>\n Hay mayor interdependencia entre los pa\u00edses, y nadie puede pensar que EE.UU. puede tomar decisiones por si solo o que las acciones del resto del mundo, en China, en Europa o situaciones respecto del petr\u00f3leo, no afectan. Es el darse cuenta que hay un primus interpares que claramente es Estados Unidos, pero que no hay poderes hegem\u00f3nicos.<\/p>\n CAMBIO POL\u00cdTICO<\/strong><\/p>\n -Al parecer la regi\u00f3n est\u00e1 retomando la senda a la derecha\u2026 Argentina, Per\u00fa, Temer en Brasil\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n -No dir\u00eda que est\u00e1 girando a la derecha. (Pedro Pablo) Kuczynski, presidente de Per\u00fa, no es el mismo desde hace cinco a\u00f1os. Ha cambiado y tiene una visi\u00f3n social mucho m\u00e1s integradora y no va a estar pensando solamente en el libre mercado, sino tambi\u00e9n en generar una mayor movilidad social en Per\u00fa.<\/p>\n En Am\u00e9rica Latina hay un cansancio con los oficialismos, fatiga por no haber dado las respuestas que la sociedad est\u00e1 buscando, muchas veces, no son los gobiernos que triunfan, sino los oficialismos que pierden. Hay un alto empoderamiento ciudadano que busca que la pol\u00edtica le d\u00e9 soluciones concretas a sus problemas de todos los d\u00edas, a la escuela, al hospital, seguridad, electricidad y quien las provea, venga ideol\u00f3gicamente de la izquierda o de la derecha, va a lograr captar su adhesi\u00f3n.<\/p>\n -\u00bfC\u00f3mo ve la situaci\u00f3n de Argentina?<\/strong><\/p>\n -A seis meses de gobierno, el presidente Mauricio Macri intenta, tras a\u00f1os de anormalidad, llevar al pa\u00eds a la normalidad econ\u00f3mica, pol\u00edtica, institucional y en las relaciones internacionales. Lo m\u00e1s s\u00f3lido que ha hecho en este tiempo es el relacionamiento internacional, volver a poner a Argentina como un interlocutor confiable. Sin embargo, su pol\u00edtica econ\u00f3mica ha sido por cuentagotas. Si me preguntas cu\u00e1l es el programa econ\u00f3mico, es volver a la normalidad, pero cu\u00e1les son las metas fiscales, cu\u00e1les son las monetarias y tengo que decir que no hay o est\u00e1n muy borrosas. Se est\u00e1 expresando la voluntad de tener un d\u00e9ficit primario de 4,3 puntos del PIB, -pero hay medidas que van y vienen que no aseguran que se vaya a lograr- y llegar a un equilibrio presupuestario en 2019, pero hay que decir c\u00f3mo. Ha dejado una econom\u00eda que est\u00e1 basada en el consumo y quiere ir a una basada en la inversi\u00f3n y hoy no tiene ni consumo ni inversi\u00f3n. Y este a\u00f1o el consumo liderar\u00e1 la ca\u00edda por efecto del alza de las tarifas de electricidad, gas y agua, lo que ha quitado ingresos disponibles a las familias. En mi equipo proyectamos una ca\u00edda en el consumo privado de casi 3% y esto tira para abajo el PIB.<\/p>\n -\u00bfY se puede revertir este escenario?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Con un programa econ\u00f3mico integral, con metas espec\u00edficas en gasto p\u00fablico y tributario. Hay que trabajar en tres planos: en el consumo -que deje de caer-, en el plano de la inversi\u00f3n-brindando un horizonte- y en comercio exterior, con una Argentina saliendo del aislamiento y generando acuerdos comerciales. Est\u00e1 perdiendo oportunidades por tener aranceles mayores a sus competidores.<\/p>\n -Respecto de Chile, \u00bfcree que los casos de colusi\u00f3n empresarial y la corrupci\u00f3n en la pol\u00edtica est\u00e1n afectando la imagen pa\u00eds?<\/strong><\/p>\n -S\u00ed, no cabe duda. Chile era un ejemplo de transparencia e institucionalidad que todos ponder\u00e1bamos y justamente, con una distinci\u00f3n respecto de Am\u00e9rica Latina. En la credibilidad ha sido un golpe, pero es un pa\u00eds muy s\u00f3lido, de instituciones muy fuertes y esto no significa que eso vaya a cambiar el curso de la solidez que tiene hoy, pero sin duda ha sido un golpe a la credibilidad. Si me dices cu\u00e1n grande ha sido el golpe, depende de c\u00f3mo se sigue hacia adelante y de las medidas que se tomen para que esto s\u00f3lo haya sido una mala an\u00e9cdota y no algo sist\u00e9mico.<\/p>\n -Y esto \u00bfpodr\u00eda impactar en la inversi\u00f3n extranjera? \u00bfo bajar la clasificaci\u00f3n de riesgo pa\u00eds?<\/strong><\/p>\n -No la clasificaci\u00f3n de riesgo. Lo que se percibe de Chile, en t\u00e9rminos de inversi\u00f3n, incluso en el propio inversor local es la b\u00fasqueda de otros horizontes porque no encuentra el clima de inversi\u00f3n que hab\u00eda en otros a\u00f1os, y si esto lo ven los chilenos, obviamente lo ven los extranjeros, quienes miran mucho lo que hacen los inversores locales. Esto ha evaporado el buen clima de inversi\u00f3n que siempre hubo en Chile.<\/p>\n -Y en el terreno pol\u00edtico, \u00bflas elecciones de Estados Unidos suponen alg\u00fan riesgo pol\u00edtico econ\u00f3mico para la regi\u00f3n?<\/strong><\/p>\n -Me sorprende lo que ha pasado con el candidato republicano con una visi\u00f3n muy xen\u00f3foba y desprecio por todo lo que est\u00e1 al sur del r\u00edo grande. No creo que llegue, pero la propia realidad pol\u00edtica, el Congreso, el Poder Judicial, instituciones que funcionan van a ir acotando las cosas que se ven en la campa\u00f1a electoral. Lo que puede traer a la econom\u00eda mundial es mayor incertidumbre en t\u00e9rminos de las medidas que tomar\u00eda, aunque ya ha anunciado un mayor nivel de proteccionismo y revisi\u00f3n de los tratados de libre comercio. Y un mundo m\u00e1s proteccionista, es un mundo que crece menos y con m\u00e1s tensiones comerciales. Pero la decisi\u00f3n l\u00f3gica es que gane Hillary Clinton y ah\u00ed el desaf\u00edo ser\u00e1 tratar de unir a unos Estados Unidos que est\u00e1n bastante divididos.<\/p>\n La deuda en productividad<\/strong><\/p>\n El ex presidente del Banco Central de Argentina vino a Chile en el marco del seminario internacional Pa\u00edses emergentes: El desaf\u00edo de mejorar la productividad, organizado por Principal Financial Group, AmCham Chile y Cuprum AFP.<\/p>\n En esta materia, se\u00f1ala que un gran desaf\u00edo es la inclusi\u00f3n social. \u201cSeguimos siendo un continente muy desigual en materia de coeficiente Gini, donde el 10% m\u00e1s rico gana 26% o 27% m\u00e1s que el 10% m\u00e1s pobre. No se mejora la productividad si hay marginalidad. Por lo tanto, en esta agenda debe estar la inclusi\u00f3n social, con inversi\u00f3n en los primeros a\u00f1os de vida de los hijos, en salud, alimentaci\u00f3n y educaci\u00f3n\u201d.<\/p>\n Afirma que \u201chemos sido muy complacientes\u201d y que no ha habido obras importantes de infraestructura -energ\u00eda, puertos y log\u00edstica o transporte-, y que no se ha utilizado organismos multilaterales de cr\u00e9dito para avanzar.<\/p>\n Tampoco existen pol\u00edticas efectivas de capacitaci\u00f3n permanente de trabajadores. Y falta inversi\u00f3n en investigaci\u00f3n y desarrollo, \u201cen promedio invierten 0,5% del PIB y Chile, 0,39%, lo cual es muy bajo. Los pa\u00edses en desarrollo est\u00e1n en 1,5%\u201d.[:en]Martin Redrado, former President of the Central Bank of Argentina<\/p>\n \u201cWe have been highly complacent with the solid cycle of raw materials\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n The World Bank economist warns that the good commodity prices that have brought growth will not lead to improvements in productivity, competitiveness or the structural reforms that could strengthen the standing of the region on the global stage. And copper? \u201cPrices from the past will not return\u201d he contends. <\/em><\/p>\n From his current position as Senior Economic Advisor for the World Bank, Martin Redrado has been monitoring the Latin American economic and political scenario. From his seat at the global financial institution, he has witnessed economic downturn, a fall in commodity prices and a variety of political changes.<\/p>\n He suggests that, \u201cwe have been highly complacent with the solid cycle of raw materials\u201d; a cycle that has brought about significant growth, but in which leaders have forgotten to implement policies to improve productivity and competitiveness or the structural reforms that could enhance the position of this part of the continent on the global stage.<\/p>\n \u201cThe region is very volatile and is more exposed to events relating to the price of raw materials than to those stemming from internal policies. And furthermore, apart from Chile, we have failed to take advantage by implementing anti-fiscal cycle policies and of saving in the good times. But let\u2019s not generalize about South America; every single country has its own particularities\u201d.<\/p>\n – Regarding general issues, do you see a change occurring in the price cycle of industrial commodities like copper or oil? <\/strong><\/p>\n – Oil follows a different logic to other commodities. The oversupply that exists in the market (the world is currently producing 96 million barrels a day and consumption is 91 million) is reducing margins, and the price war that was raging between the United States and the OPEC producers has, seemingly, come to an end.\u00a0 Therefore, we can say that the price has bottomed out, but I do not envisage a particularly sharp rise. The remaining commodities depend heavily on China and the potential volatility of prices.<\/p>\n – How do you see recovery in China and its impact on copper prices?<\/strong><\/p>\n – I see it as slow. I do not think the price of copper, or of other industrial commodities, will decline or rise any further. Prices from the past will not return. I do not want to predict long-term copper prices, but I see them as remaining stable for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n – Regarding fiscal matters, how have Latin American countries performed? Do any face fiscal risks? <\/strong><\/p>\n – Chile has performed well in tax matters but has been on the slide recently following a tax reform that has impacted significantly on investment and potential growth. It has also had previous rules, such as those governing the management of copper, that have been successful, but these have broken down. Brazil and Argentina have performed weakly on the fiscal side, having failed to take advantage of the upside of the cycle and they are now paying the price. Peru and Colombia have pursued highly rational tax policies, continuously seeking balanced budgets and avoiding unnecessary public expenditure. Mexico has followed a reasonable fiscal policy, without anti-cyclical programs, but is now attracting attention with its reforms of the oil and energy sector.<\/p>\n Brazil currently has a deteriorating fiscal policy that is akin to a perfect storm, given its ongoing political, institutional, economic and corruption crisis. As a result, the country is, tax-wise, undoubtedly in a serious situation and faces the possibility of losing its risk rating; the only country in the region facing this threat. The rest of the countries are stable and some, including Argentina, are on the rise.<\/p>\n – What impact can we expect the Brazilian crisis to have on other economies? <\/strong><\/p>\n – This year, Argentina and Brazil will experience the greatest declines in the region, along with other countries that have particularly close trade links to Brazil. Regarding Argentina, industrial manufacturing exports to Brazil will fall by 18%. But this is not the case with Chile, which has 30 FTAs (Free Trade Agreements) with other countries or regions, which means it is less dependent on Brazil than other nations, such as Argentina, or to a lesser degree, Uruguay and Paraguay.<\/p>\n – The Fed has kept its rates unchanged due to Brexit and general unemployment. Is there are chance that it will raise them again?<\/strong><\/p>\n – Today I see the US Federal Reserve as far more attentive to what happens in the rest of the world, particularly in China, Europe and the large emerging economies, including Latin America. Records from meetings show that the Fed is frequently discussing the international situation, which it did not do previously. Today, what (Janet) Yellen is saying is \u201cI\u2019m watching Brexit\u201d, so there is greater caution. A hike in its interest rates does not only impact the emerging world, but also the rate differential with the euro, that has negative rates, and this could lead to an excessive appreciation of the dollar. Therefore, there is a sense of direction at the Federal Reserve, but one which will take place very gradually, meaning that it should not noticeably affect Latin America.<\/p>\n There is greater interdependence between countries today, and no one should think that the US is able to make decisions on its own or that the actions from the rest of the world, in China, Europe or those relating to the oil industry, have no impact on the US. It should be realized that the United States is clearly primus inter pares<\/em>, but that there are no hegemonic powers in the world today.<\/p>\n POLITICAL CHANGE<\/strong><\/p>\n – It would appear that the region is turning back to the right\u2026 Argentina, Peru, Temer in Brazil\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n – I would not say that it is turning to the right. (Pedro Pablo) Kuczynski, the Peruvian President, is not the same as he was five years ago. He has changed and has a far more inclusive social outlook, and he will not only be thinking about the free market but also in creating greater social mobility in Peru.<\/p>\n In Latin America, people are tired of government authorities for having failed to provide the answers society is looking for; rather than parties winning elections, it is often that governments lose them. Increasingly empowered citizens are looking to politicians to offer concrete solutions to their day-to-day problems, such as schools, hospitals, security and energy, and whoever provides these, whether from the political left or right, will succeed in winning their support.<\/p>\n – How do you see things in Argentina? <\/strong><\/p>\n – Six months into the new government and President Mauricio Macri is trying, after years of abnormality, to lead the country towards normality in terms of the economy, politics, institutions and international relations. The most significant progress achieved in this period is in international relations, with Macri having restored Argentina as a trustworthy partner. However, his economic policy has been bit by bit. If you ask me what his economic program is, it is to return to normality, but regarding the fiscal and monetary targets, I would have to say that there are few and they are blurred. He is showing a willingness to have a primary deficit of 4.3% of GDP, although measures come and go and it is unknown whether this goal will be achieved. He also plans to oversee a balanced budget in 2019, but he needs to explain how this will be realised. He has moved from an economy based on consumption and wants to create one based on investment and at the moment there is no consumption and no investment. And this year, consumption will lead the decline as a result of the hike in electricity, gas and water prices, which has deprived families of their disposal incomes. In my team, we project a fall in private consumption of almost 3% and this will pull GDP down.<\/p>\n – And can this scenario be avoided? <\/strong><\/p>\n – With a comprehensive economic program, with specific public expenditure and taxation targets, yes. Work is required on three levels: consumption, which must stop falling; investment, with the provision of new opportunities; and foreign trade, with Argentina emerging from isolation and signing trade agreements. Opportunities are being lost by having higher tariffs than its competitors.<\/p>\n – Regarding Chile, do you think the cases of collusion between firms and political corruption are affecting the country\u2019s image? <\/strong><\/p>\n – Yes, undoubtedly. Chile was an example of transparency and institutionalism that was praised, rightly so, by all parties and it was seen as distinct from the rest of Latin America. Such cases have shaken its credibility, but it is a solid country, with strong institutions and such solidity will not change as a result, but its reputation has certainly been affected. In terms of the extent to which the country has been shaken, it depends on how it moves forward and the measures it takes to ensure that these are only rare occurrences rather than something more systemic.<\/p>\n – And could this affect foreign investment, or lead to a fall in the country\u2019s risk rating? <\/strong><\/p>\n – Not the risk rating, no. In terms of the perception of Chile in relation to investment, even from national investors, there are efforts underway to search for new opportunities because the investment climate is not the same as it was in the past. If Chileans can see this, so too can foreigners, who closely monitor the actions of local investors. Such events have, however, damaged the good investment climate so prevalent in Chile in the past.<\/p>\n – Regarding the political arena, will the elections in the United States involve some kind of political-economic risk for the region?<\/strong><\/p>\n – I am surprised that someone with such a xenophobic outlook and contempt for everything south of the Rio Grande has become the Republican Party candidate for president. I do not think he will win, but the political reality itself, Congress, the judiciary, working institutions, will closely follow the events of the electoral campaign. What the campaign may produce is greater uncertainty in the global economy because of the measures he might introduce, having already announced possibly greater protectionism and a review of free trade agreements. And a more protectionist world is one that grows less and produces greater tensions in terms of trade. The logical decision is that Hillary Clinton will win, and then the challenge will be to try to unite a considerably divided United States.<\/p>\n The lack of productivity<\/strong><\/p>\n The former President of the Central Bank of Argentina has visited Chile as part of the international seminar, Emerging Countries: The challenge of Improving, organized by Principal Financial Group, AmCham Chile and Cuprum AFP.<\/p>\n Accordingly, he stated that one particular challenge is social inclusion. \u201cWe are still a highly unequal continent according to the Gini coefficient, in which the richest 10% earn 26% or 27% more than the poorest 10%. Productivity cannot improve if marginalization continues. Therefore, this agenda must point to social inclusion, with investment in the first years of children\u2019s lives, including health, nutrition and education\u201d.<\/p>\n He also stated that, \u201cwe have been complacent\u201d and that there was a lack of major infrastructure development projects, in energy, ports, logistics and transportation, and that multilateral organizations had been ignored in terms of accessing the necessary credit to take things forward.<\/p>\n A lack of effective and permanent training policies for workers has also been a problem. Furthermore, there has been a lack of investment in research and development, \u201con average Latin American countries invest 0.5% of their GDP (in R&D), while the figure for Chile is 0.39%, which is very low. Developed countries invest 1.5%\u201d.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [:es]Martin Redrado, ex presidente del Banco Central de Argentina \u201cHemos sido muy complacientes con el buen ciclo de las materias primas\u201d El economista del Banco Mundial advierte que los buenos precios de los commodities trajeron crecimiento, pero no se generaron mejoras en productividad, competitividad ni reformas estructurales que elevaran la posici\u00f3n de la regi\u00f3n en […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9723","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n