{"id":9605,"date":"2016-04-02T09:12:00","date_gmt":"2016-04-02T12:12:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amchamchile.cl\/?p=147351"},"modified":"2016-04-12T09:20:32","modified_gmt":"2016-04-12T12:20:32","slug":"foco-economico-sigue-la-desaceleracion","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/en\/noticia\/foco-economico-sigue-la-desaceleracion\/","title":{"rendered":"[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: Sigue la desaceleraci\u00f3n[:en]The Downshift Continues[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

[:es]<\/p>\n

Los eventos recientes en Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Latina han servido como una\u00a0bienvenida distracci\u00f3n para\u00a0los participantes del mercado\u00a0chileno y han dado algo de
\nesperanza para mejores perspectivas de\u00a0crecimiento en la regi\u00f3n, como resultado\u00a0de los procesos democr\u00e1ticos que apuntan\u00a0a cambios pol\u00edticos positivos. Esto\u00a0ha creado una percepci\u00f3n de relativa\u00a0tranquilidad en Chile para comenzar el\u00a0a\u00f1o. Sin embargo, el crecimiento sigue\u00a0cayendo y los economistas han reducido\u00a0sus expectativas, destacando el dif\u00edcil\u00a0entorno que persiste a nivel local.<\/p>\n

Como esta columna pronostic\u00f3 en\u00a0su publicaci\u00f3n para cerrar el a\u00f1o 2015,\u00a0Am\u00e9rica Latina se ha embarcado en un\u00a0potencial cambio de pol\u00edtica que podr\u00eda\u00a0potenciar una nueva era de crecimiento\u00a0secular. La regi\u00f3n ya ha visto varios procesos\u00a0democr\u00e1ticos que han comenzado\u00a0a arrancar de ra\u00edz los establecimientos no\u00a0ortodoxos en Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil y\u00a0Venezuela. A pesar de estos avances, a\u00fan\u00a0persisten desaf\u00edos externos e internos. En\u00a0el intertanto, el crecimiento permanece por\u00a0debajo del potencial y, en algunos casos,\u00a0en terreno negativo, lo que no ayudar\u00e1 a\u00a0las perspectivas de crecimiento general\u00a0para la regi\u00f3n en el corto plazo.<\/p>\n

Mientras tanto, Chile sigue enfrentando\u00a0sus propios desaf\u00edos, como menores\u00a0precios de los commodities, las reformas\u00a0estructurales, varios esc\u00e1ndalos y la\u00a0incertidumbre continua, los cuales han\u00a0tenido efectos perjudiciales sobre la\u00a0inversi\u00f3n y el sentimiento. Esto ha sido\u00a0evidente en los principales indicadores,\u00a0como la producci\u00f3n industrial, que mostr\u00f3\u00a0un descenso de 8,3% a\/a en enero. Las\u00a0ventas del comercio han sido m\u00e1s resistentes,\u00a0con un crecimiento de 3,4% a\/a\u00a0en enero, pero siguen siendo insuficientes\u00a0para compensar totalmente la ca\u00edda de los\u00a0sectores productivos. Como resultado, el\u00a0crecimiento del PIB real alcanz\u00f3 solo 0,3%\u00a0en enero, seg\u00fan el Imacec. A pesar de un\u00a0nivel de desempleo estable, hay se\u00f1ales\u00a0de deterioro en su calidad, especialmente\u00a0porque los puestos no calificados son los\u00a0que explican la mayor parte de la creaci\u00f3n\u00a0de empleo. Por otra parte, los bancos\u00a0han visto un incremento relevante de su\u00a0cartera morosa.<\/p>\n

Teniendo en cuenta los actuales vientos\u00a0en contra y las tendencias subyacentes\u00a0d\u00e9biles, los economistas han seguido\u00a0reduciendo sus previsiones. El crecimiento\u00a0del PIB real seg\u00fan consenso del Banco\u00a0Central para 2016, ahora se sit\u00faa en\u00a01,7%, frente a 3,5% de hace un a\u00f1o. Las\u00a0autoridades tambi\u00e9n han comenzado a\u00a0ajustar sus n\u00fameros a la nueva realidad\u00a0con el Ministerio de Hacienda anunciando\u00a0recientemente un nuevo pron\u00f3stico\u00a0de 2,0% para 2016, por debajo del 2,6%\u00a0anterior. El Banco Central tambi\u00e9n cort\u00f3\u00a0dr\u00e1sticamente sus expectativas a un rango\u00a0de 1,25-2,25% desde 2-3% que public\u00f3\u00a0en diciembre y 2,5-3,5%, en septiembre.<\/p>\n

\"untitled\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Con la inflaci\u00f3n por encima del l\u00edmite\u00a0superior del rango objetivo de 2-4% del\u00a0Banco Central, este escenario de estanflaci\u00f3n\u00a0hace que las decisiones de pol\u00edtica\u00a0monetaria sean m\u00e1s dif\u00edciles, especialmente\u00a0teniendo en cuenta las declaraciones de\u00a0una pol\u00edtica m\u00e1s restrictiva. Al mismo\u00a0tiempo, los recursos en el lado fiscal\u00a0siguen siendo limitados con el gasto del\u00a0Gobierno para 2016 reci\u00e9n recortado en\u00a0el \u00faltimo ajuste presupuestario hasta\u00a04,4% desde 5,4% del PIB, mientras que\u00a0las expectativas de un creciente d\u00e9ficit\u00a0fiscal s\u00f3lo han aumentado.<\/p>\n

A falta de una recuperaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s\u00a0amplia en las econom\u00edas globales y regionales,\u00a0Chile va a continuar enfrentando\u00a0presiones sobre su crecimiento en 2016.\u00a0Como resultado, es probable que se intensifique\u00a0el debate interno entre reformas\u00a0adicionales y las iniciativas a favor del\u00a0crecimiento con implicancias relevantes\u00a0para las elecciones municipales este a\u00f1o\u00a0y tambi\u00e9n la campa\u00f1a presidencial de\u00a02017.<\/p>\n

POR BRIAN P. CHASE<\/strong>
\nPortfolio Manager Head of Andean Equities<\/strong>
\nIta\u00fa Asset Management<\/strong>[:en]Recent developments in Latin America have served as a welcome distraction for market participants in Chile and have provided a glimmer of hope for better medium-term growth prospects in the region, as democratic due processes pave the way for positive political change.\u00a0 This has at the very least created a perception of relative tranquility in Chile to start the year.\u00a0 However, growth continues to soften and economists have slashed their forecasts, underscoring the challenging environment that persists at the local level.<\/p>\n

As this column hypothesized in its closing publication of 2015, Latin America is embarking on a potential political shift that could help ring in a new era of secular growth.\u00a0 The region has already seen a whirlwind of democratic processes that have begun to uproot the unorthodox establishments in Argentina, Bolivia, Venezuela and Brazil.\u00a0 Despite these positive developments, external and domestic challenges remain.\u00a0 In the interim, growth will hover below potential and in some cases, negative territory, which won\u2019t help the general growth outlook for the region in the near term.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Chile continues to face its own challenges with lower commodity prices, reforms, scandals and ongoing uncertainty taking their toll on investment and sentiment.\u00a0 This has been evident in leading indicators, such as Industrial Production, which was down 8.3% y\/y in January.\u00a0 Retail sales have been more resilient, growing 3.4% y\/y in January, but are still insufficient to fully compensate the slide in productive sectors.\u00a0 As a result, real GDP growth reached just 0.3% in January, as measured by the IMACEC index.\u00a0 Despite stable unemployment levels, there are signs of deterioration in quality with non-qualified positions explaining most of the job creation.\u00a0 Furthermore, banks have seen a relevant increase in non-performing consumer loans.<\/p>\n

Given the current headwinds and weak underlying trends, economists have continued to reduce their forecasts.\u00a0 Consensus real GDP growth for 2016 now stands at 1.7%, down from 3.5% a year ago.\u00a0 Authorities have also begun to adjust their numbers to the new reality with the Finance Ministry recently announcing a new forecast of 2.0% for 2016, down from 2.6% previously.\u00a0 The Central Bank also took its numbers to the wood shed, reducing its growth expectation range to just 1.25-2.25%, down from 2-3% published in December and 2.5-3.5% published in September.<\/p>\n

\"untitled\"<\/a><\/p>\n

With inflation still above the upper band of the Central Bank\u2019s 2-4% target range, this stagflation scenario makes monetary policy decisions more difficult, especially given previously hawkish pronouncements.\u00a0 At the same time, resources on the fiscal front remain limited with government spending for 2016 recently cut to 4.4% from 5.4% of GDP in the latest budget adjustments, while the expectations for a widening fiscal deficit have only increased.<\/p>\n

In the absence of a broader recovery in global and regional economies, Chile is likely to continue facing growth pressures in 2016.\u00a0 This is likely to intensify the ongoing internal debate between further reform and pro-growth initiatives with relevant implications for municipal elections later in the year and ultimately the 2017 presidential campaign.<\/p>\n

By\u00a0Brian P. Chase
\n<\/strong>Portfolio Manager, Head of Andean Equities
\n<\/strong>Ita\u00fa Asset Management<\/strong>[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[:es] Los eventos recientes en Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Latina han servido como una\u00a0bienvenida distracci\u00f3n para\u00a0los participantes del mercado\u00a0chileno y han dado algo de esperanza para mejores perspectivas de\u00a0crecimiento en la regi\u00f3n, como resultado\u00a0de los procesos democr\u00e1ticos que apuntan\u00a0a cambios pol\u00edticos positivos. Esto\u00a0ha creado una percepci\u00f3n de relativa\u00a0tranquilidad en Chile para comenzar el\u00a0a\u00f1o. Sin embargo, el crecimiento sigue\u00a0cayendo y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9605","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: Sigue la desaceleraci\u00f3n[:en]The Downshift Continues[:] - AmCham Chile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/foco-economico-sigue-la-desaceleracion\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: Sigue la desaceleraci\u00f3n[:en]The Downshift Continues[:] - AmCham Chile\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[:es] Los eventos recientes en Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Latina han servido como una\u00a0bienvenida distracci\u00f3n para\u00a0los participantes del mercado\u00a0chileno y han dado algo de esperanza para mejores perspectivas de\u00a0crecimiento en la regi\u00f3n, como resultado\u00a0de los procesos democr\u00e1ticos que apuntan\u00a0a cambios pol\u00edticos positivos. Esto\u00a0ha creado una percepci\u00f3n de relativa\u00a0tranquilidad en Chile para comenzar el\u00a0a\u00f1o. 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