{"id":9481,"date":"2015-12-11T17:10:12","date_gmt":"2015-12-11T20:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amchamchile.cl\/?p=146164"},"modified":"2016-02-04T11:03:53","modified_gmt":"2016-02-04T14:03:53","slug":"liberando-el-comercio-a-traves-del-pacifico","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/en\/noticia\/liberando-el-comercio-a-traves-del-pacifico\/","title":{"rendered":"[:es]Liberando el comercio a trav\u00e9s del Pac\u00edfico[:en]Freeing Trade across the Pacific[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

[:es]Un nuevo acuerdo comercial, el acuerdo transpac\u00edfico de libre comercio (TPP), sellado en octubre, reducir\u00e1 no solamente barreras arancelarias, sino, mucho m\u00e1s importante a\u00fan, las barreras no arancelarias que gravan de manera particularmente onerosa al comercio en los servicios. Aclamado como un cambio de juego para el comercio mundial, ahora enfrenta la prueba de su ratificaci\u00f3n por los doce pa\u00edses miembros.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Por Ruth Bradley<\/strong><\/p>\n

La idea de libre comercio a trav\u00e9s\u00a0del Pac\u00edfico dista mucho de ser\u00a0nueva. Fue propuesta por primera\u00a0vez a fines de los a\u00f1os sesenta,\u00a0cuando se cre\u00f3 la Conferencia\u00a0de Comercio y Desarrollo para el Pac\u00edfico\u00a0(PAFTAD, en su sigla en ingl\u00e9s), seguida 20\u00a0a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s por el Foro de Cooperaci\u00f3n\u00a0Econ\u00f3mica Asia-Pac\u00edfico (APEC, en su sigla\u00a0en ingl\u00e9s). Pero, si bien se han logrado progresos\u00a0significativos en materia de reducci\u00f3n\u00a0de aranceles, 2010, la fecha establecida\u00a0como meta por la APEC para lograr una completa liberalizaci\u00f3n del comercio por\u00a0parte de sus miembros industrializados,\u00a0lleg\u00f3 y se fue.<\/p>\n

Ahora bien, una vertiente de esa visi\u00f3n\u00a0podr\u00eda convertirse en realidad. Aunque\u00a0queda corta respecto de su objetivo final; es\u00a0decir, establecer un \u00c1rea de Libre Comercio\u00a0Asia-Pac\u00edfico (FTAAP, en su sigla en ingl\u00e9s),\u00a0el Acuerdo Transpac\u00edfico de Libre comercio\u00a0(TPP, en su sigla en ingl\u00e9s), cuyo acuerdo\u00a0fue logrado en Atlanta el pasado mes de\u00a0octubre luego de m\u00e1s de cinco a\u00f1os de\u00a0negociaciones, reunir\u00e1 a 12 pa\u00edses de Asia\u00a0y de las Am\u00e9ricas (Australia, Brunei, Canad\u00e1,\u00a0Chile, Jap\u00f3n, Malasia, M\u00e9xico, Nueva\u00a0Zelanda, Per\u00fa, Singapur, Estados Unidos y\u00a0Vietnam), representando alrededor de 40%\u00a0del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) mundial y\u00a0cerca de 30% del comercio del orbe.<\/p>\n

Se trata del mayor pacto comercial en\u00a020 a\u00f1os y constituye un acuerdo integral\u00a0de alto nivel. \u201cA falta de avances desde la\u00a0Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial de Comercio, este\u00a0acuerdo le da un impulso global al comercio\u00a0de la siguiente generaci\u00f3n\u201d, dice Kathleen\u00a0Barclay, presidenta de la C\u00e1mara Chileno\u00a0Norteamericana de Comercio, AmCham Chile.<\/p>\n

Al igual que acuerdos m\u00e1s antiguos,\u00a0\u00e9ste tambi\u00e9n reducir\u00eda aranceles, incluyendo\u00a0algunos en el t\u00edpicamente muy\u00a0protegido sector agr\u00edcola, pero lo que es\u00a0a\u00fan m\u00e1s importante, introducir\u00eda nuevas\u00a0regulaciones para esquivar barreras no\u00a0arancelarias, tales como los engorrosos\u00a0procedimientos aduaneros y pol\u00edticas de\u00a0compras p\u00fablicas que pueden, en estos\u00a0d\u00edas de tarifas m\u00e1s bajas, constituir una\u00a0barrera mucho m\u00e1s seria para el comercio.\u00a0El TPP tambi\u00e9n servir\u00e1 -esperan sus\u00a0miembros- como un nuevo referente para el\u00a0desarrollo del comercio y de las inversiones\u00a0alrededor del mundo.<\/p>\n

Muchas expectativas est\u00e1n cifradas en\u00a0su impacto en la liberalizaci\u00f3n del comercio\u00a0de servicios. Sectores como finanzas y\u00a0telecomunicaciones representan un enorme\u00a0porcentaje del PIB, particularmente en los\u00a0pa\u00edses desarrollados; pero, no obstante los\u00a0avances de las tecnolog\u00edas de la informaci\u00f3n\u00a0y las comunicaciones, todav\u00eda representan\u00a0una peque\u00f1a fracci\u00f3n del comercio mundial.\u00a0Y lo anterior es parcialmente atribuible a\u00a0las barreras no arancelarias. Un estudio\u00a0realizado el a\u00f1o 2012 por el Instituto Peterson\u00a0para la Econom\u00eda Internacional con sede\u00a0en Washington, lleg\u00f3 a la conclusi\u00f3n que\u00a0en M\u00e9xico, por ejemplo, dichas barreras\u00a0no arancelarias equival\u00edan a un arancel\u00a0de 44%, mientras que en Canad\u00e1 y Jap\u00f3n\u00a0correspond\u00edan a un arancel de 15%, en tanto\u00a0en Estados Unidos representaba s\u00f3lo 6%.<\/p>\n

\"grhrhrehrere\"
\nCalcular los beneficios potenciales\u00a0de un acuerdo comercial del alcance del\u00a0TPP es complejo. Despu\u00e9s de todo, \u00e9stos\u00a0depender\u00e1n parcialmente de cu\u00e1n astutos\u00a0sean los pa\u00edses miembros en aprovechar\u00a0las nuevas oportunidades. Sin embargo,\u00a0el Instituto Peterson estima que hacia el\u00a0a\u00f1o 2025, dicho acuerdo podr\u00eda impulsar\u00a0el comercio mundial en unos US$ 305.000\u00a0millones; es decir, 1,1% m\u00e1s de lo que\u00a0hubiera sido sin este acuerdo.<\/p>\n

Algunos cr\u00edticos han denigrado esto\u00a0como un peque\u00f1o cambio. Sin embargo,\u00a0los partidarios del TPP se\u00f1alan que una\u00a0integraci\u00f3n de cadenas de suministro, quiz\u00e1s\u00a0la clave m\u00e1s importante para potenciar sus\u00a0beneficios, es un proceso necesariamente\u00a0lento, particularmente, en un acuerdo\u00a0que re\u00fane a pa\u00edses tan diferentes como,\u00a0por ejemplo, Estados Unidos y Vietnam.<\/p>\n

El trozo de la torta\u00a0que le toca a Chile
\n<\/strong>
\nEn el caso de las econom\u00edas impulsadas\u00a0por sus exportaciones, como Chile, Asia es\u00a0crucial. Y lo es no solamente por el apetito\u00a0chino por recursos naturales. El Fondo\u00a0Monetario Internacional (FMI) estima que\u00a0cerca de la mitad del crecimiento mundial\u00a0de los pr\u00f3ximos cinco a\u00f1os ocurrir\u00e1 en Asia\u00a0y sus clases medias en r\u00e1pida expansi\u00f3n\u00a0significan que su demanda por importaciones\u00a0se est\u00e1 diversificando hacia productos\u00a0con mayor valor agregado.<\/p>\n

El TPP, en efecto, tiene sus ra\u00edces en\u00a0el Acuerdo de Comercio P4 que Chile firm\u00f3\u00a0con Brunei, Nueva Zelanda y Singapur el\u00a0a\u00f1o 2005. Sin embargo, se han vertido\u00a0ciertas expresiones un tanto esc\u00e9pticas\u00a0en cuanto a sus ventajas para Chile, el\u00a0\u00fanico pa\u00eds miembro del TPP que ya tiene\u00a0acuerdos de libre comercio con todos los\u00a0dem\u00e1s miembros.<\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9s Rebolledo, director general de\u00a0la Direcci\u00f3n de Relaciones Econ\u00f3micas\u00a0Internacionales del Ministerio de Relaciones\u00a0Exteriores de Chile, se\u00f1ala que el TPP es un\u00a0avance en relaci\u00f3n a los acuerdos de libre\u00a0comercio que tiene el pa\u00eds al incluir algunos\u00a0productos, principalmente del sector agr\u00edcola,\u00a0que \u00e9stos excluyen. Particularmente\u00a0en los mercados japoneses, canadienses,\u00a0malayos y vietnamitas, se\u00f1ala, algunas\u00a0exportaciones chilenas experimentar\u00e1n\u00a0una reducci\u00f3n arancelaria o un aumento\u00a0de sus cuotas de importaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

Anticipando la publicaci\u00f3n de un estudio\u00a0gubernamental sobre las implicancias\u00a0del referido acuerdo para Chile, Rebolledo\u00a0sugiere que la industria alimentaria ser\u00e1\u00a0una de las m\u00e1s beneficiadas con un mejor\u00a0acceso para algunos productos que incluyen\u00a0vacuno, cerdo y salm\u00f3n. Para la industria\u00a0forestal, agrega, habr\u00e1 mejoras de acceso\u00a0para productos manufacturados.<\/p>\n

Por otra parte, Kathleen Barclay de\u00a0AmCham, destaca que la acumulaci\u00f3n de\u00a0normas de origen del TPP tambi\u00e9n representa\u00a0una oportunidad clave para Chile.\u00a0Al permitir a productores chilenos utilizar\u00a0insumos de otros pa\u00edses miembros, sin por\u00a0ello perder ventajas arancelarias, \u00e9stos se\u00a0podr\u00edan convertir en la base para el desarrollo\u00a0de cadenas de suministro que, con\u00a0innovaci\u00f3n, fomentar\u00edan la diversificaci\u00f3n\u00a0de las exportaciones, algo que durante\u00a0mucho tiempo ha sido identificado como\u00a0uno de los desaf\u00edos pendientes del pa\u00eds.<\/p>\n

\"oooooooooooooooo\"
\nAquello podr\u00eda ser tan simple como\u00a0envasar fruta tropical de Per\u00fa para ser\u00a0exportada a alguno de los pa\u00edses asi\u00e1ticos\u00a0miembros. O bien, tal vez, comprar madera\u00a0de alg\u00fan otro pa\u00eds, utilizando dise\u00f1os y\u00a0manufactura chilena para fabricar muebles\u00a0para ser exportados a Estados Unidos.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan el Instituto Peterson, el acuerdo\u00a0podr\u00eda, hacia el a\u00f1o 2025, estar sumando\u00a0unos US$ 2.500 millones anuales al PIB\u00a0de Chile, equivalente a 0,9 puntos porcentuales\u00a0de crecimiento adicional. Eso\u00a0es m\u00e1s de lo que le representar\u00eda para\u00a0Estados Unidos, pa\u00eds que experimentar\u00eda\u00a00,4 puntos porcentuales de crecimiento y\u00a0M\u00e9xico, cuya ganancia ser\u00eda de 0,5 puntos\u00a0porcentuales, aunque algo menos de los\u00a01,2 puntos porcentuales de Per\u00fa.<\/p>\n

Pero, agrega Rebolledo, hay otra ganancia\u00a0subyacente que es crucial para Chile. \u201cPara\u00a0un pa\u00eds peque\u00f1o e integrado, las reglas\u00a0comerciales son fundamentales\u2026 y \u00e9ste es\u00a0el acuerdo m\u00e1s importante en materia de\u00a0creaci\u00f3n de nuevas normas en 20 a\u00f1os\u201d.\u00a0Por otra parte, se\u00f1ala \u00e9l, los est\u00e1ndares\u00a0que Chile ha cumplido por espacio de una\u00a0d\u00e9cada bajo el Tratado de Libre Comercio\u00a0con Estados Unidos significa que, a diferencia\u00a0de algunos otros socios del TPP,\u00a0los costos de implementaci\u00f3n ser\u00edan muy\u00a0bajos para Chile.<\/p>\n

El comercio en\u00a0Am\u00e9rica del Sur<\/strong><\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan la Comisi\u00f3n Econ\u00f3mica para\u00a0Am\u00e9rica Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) de\u00a0la Organizaci\u00f3n de Naciones Unidas, las\u00a0exportaciones de Am\u00e9rica del Sur se contraer\u00e1n\u00a0por tercer a\u00f1o consecutivo en 2015,\u00a0profundiz\u00e1ndose su ca\u00edda desde 1,6% en
\n2013 y 7,3% en 2014 hasta 21% este a\u00f1o.\u00a0Lo anterior es mayormente atribuible a la\u00a0ca\u00edda de los precios de los commodities, pero\u00a0tambi\u00e9n refleja un bajo nivel de comercio\u00a0intrarregional \u2013muy inferior, por ejemplo,\u00a0a lo que ocurre en gran parte de Asia-, el\u00a0que, adem\u00e1s, ha estado disminuyendo\u00a0m\u00e1s r\u00e1pidamente que el comercio con\u00a0otras regiones.<\/p>\n

En ese sentido, Am\u00e9rica del Sur se ha\u00a0estado desempe\u00f1ando peor que Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Central, cuyas exportaciones intrarregionales\u00a0est\u00e1n creciendo, aunque lentamente,\u00a0siguiendo una tendencia en parte\u00a0atribuida a la integraci\u00f3n y\u00a0desarrollo de su cadena de\u00a0suministros impulsada\u00a0por acuerdos comerciales\u00a0de Am\u00e9rica\u00a0Central con Estados\u00a0Unidos, la\u00a0Uni\u00f3n Europea\u00a0y M\u00e9xico. En contraste, Am\u00e9rica del Sur\u00a0aparece claramente dividida en dos grupos\u00a0-en el Pac\u00edfico y en el Atl\u00e1ntico-; divisi\u00f3n que\u00a0se ha sugerido que el TPP podr\u00eda acentuar.<\/p>\n

Si bien Colombia no es un pa\u00eds miembro\u00a0del TPP \u2013principalmente por no ser miembro\u00a0de APEC-, ha expresado su inter\u00e9s en\u00a0asociarse a dicho acuerdo. Sin embargo, el\u00a0enfoque comercial de, por ejemplo, Argentina\u00a0y Brasil, es actualmente bastante diferente\u00a0de los est\u00e1ndares propuestos en el TPP.<\/p>\n

Seg\u00fan Jeffrey Schott, un senior fellow\u00a0del Instituto Peterson y un ex negociador\u00a0comercial de Estados Unidos, el TPP podr\u00eda\u00a0profundizar la grieta dentro de Am\u00e9rica del\u00a0Sur. Se\u00f1ala que potencialmente habr\u00eda un\u00a0impacto en los flujos de inversi\u00f3n en la\u00a0medida que aquellos pa\u00edses que incorporen\u00a0sus est\u00e1ndares sean cada vez m\u00e1s atractivos\u00a0para los inversionistas extranjeros,
\nen comparaci\u00f3n con aqu\u00e9llos que no sean\u00a0miembros. Pero -aclara- esto es un s\u00edntoma\u00a0del problema, no su causa.<\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9s Rebolledo tiene una visi\u00f3n m\u00e1s\u00a0optimista: \u201cel impacto sist\u00e9mico del TPP,\u00a0en t\u00e9rminos de normas ser\u00e1, me parece, lo\u00a0suficientemente importante como para que\u00a0otros pa\u00edses lo eval\u00faen a futuro\u201d.<\/p>\n

Y agrega, que hay espacio suficiente\u00a0para que la Alianza del Pac\u00edfico \u2013integrada\u00a0por Chile, Colombia, Per\u00fa y M\u00e9xico- y el\u00a0bloque comercial del Mercosur, negocien\u00a0acuerdos en temas espec\u00edficos tales como\u00a0facilitaci\u00f3n del comercio, para cuyo objetivo\u00a0ya se han reunido en dos ocasiones. Y no\u00a0hay raz\u00f3n para que el TPP afecte aquello,\u00a0enfatiza.<\/p>\n

Entretanto, la Alianza del Pac\u00edfico\u00a0tambi\u00e9n planea seguir desarrollando su\u00a0propia agenda. Esto incluye algunas \u00e1reas\u00a0no incluidas en el TPP, tales como los\u00a0movimientos de personas, indica Rebolledo.<\/p>\n

\u00bfUn cambio de juego del\u00a0comercio mundial?
\n<\/strong>
\nEn a\u00f1os recientes, el crecimiento del\u00a0volumen del comercio mundial se ha\u00a0desacelerado significativamente, cayendo\u00a0por debajo de la producci\u00f3n mundial, la\u00a0que en el pasado a veces duplic\u00f3. Esto es\u00a0mayormente atribuible al prolongado baj\u00f3n\u00a0c\u00edclico europeo, pero es tambi\u00e9n un reflejo\u00a0de cambios estructurales, como la tendencia\u00a0de China de fabricar una creciente cantidad\u00a0de productos con valor agregado.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, no ayuda que los avances\u00a0en materia de liberalizaci\u00f3n comercial han\u00a0sido lentos. Si bien la Organizaci\u00f3n Mundial\u00a0de Comercio (OMC) lleg\u00f3 a un acuerdo de\u00a0facilitaci\u00f3n comercial en 2013, principalmente\u00a0orientado a reducir la burocracia\u00a0aduanera, los resultados entregados por\u00a0la ronda de negociaciones de Doha han\u00a0sido muy modestos.<\/p>\n

El resultado ha sido una mezcla de\u00a0acuerdos regionales y bilaterales con\u00a0normas a menudo incompatibles, pero el
\nTPP podr\u00eda ser justo una se\u00f1al de que la\u00a0consolidaci\u00f3n est\u00e1 comenzando.<\/p>\n

El a\u00f1o 2013, Estados Unidos y la Uni\u00f3n\u00a0Europea iniciaron negociaciones sobre la\u00a0propuesta Asociaci\u00f3n Transatl\u00e1ntica de Comercio e Inversi\u00f3n (TTIP, en su sigla en\u00a0ingl\u00e9s), la que debido a que los aranceles\u00a0para productos comercializados a trav\u00e9s del Atl\u00e1ntico ya est\u00e1n cercanos a cero, se\u00a0enfocar\u00e1, por lo tanto, en las regulaciones\u00a0y otras barreras no arancelarias. O bien, dicho de otra manera, en armonizar o al\u00a0menos reconocer los est\u00e1ndares de los otros\u00a0en materias como pruebas de inocuidad\u00a0alimentaria y seguridad de los autom\u00f3viles.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, el progreso ha sido\u00a0lento. Seg\u00fan algunos, esto se debe a que\u00a0la atenci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos ha sido\u00a0absorbida por el TPP \u2013el \u201cpivote al Asia\u201d del\u00a0Presidente Barack Obama-, pero tambi\u00e9n\u00a0hay una importante oposici\u00f3n p\u00fablica en\u00a0Europa hacia este acuerdo. Sin embargo,\u00a0seg\u00fan John Murphy, vicepresidente senior\u00a0de pol\u00edtica internacional de la C\u00e1mara de\u00a0Comercio de Estados Unidos, los beneficios\u00a0ser\u00edan potencialmente mayores que\u00a0aqu\u00e9llos del TPP, tan s\u00f3lo porque los flujos\u00a0transatl\u00e1nticos son tan grandes.<\/p>\n

Del mismo modo, en Asia, ya comenzaron\u00a0las negociaciones para la Asociaci\u00f3n\u00a0Econ\u00f3mica Regional Integral (RCEP, en\u00a0su sigla en ingl\u00e9s), que re\u00fane a los diez\u00a0miembros de la Asociaci\u00f3n de Naciones\u00a0del Sudeste Asi\u00e1tico (ASEAN, en su sigla\u00a0en ingl\u00e9s) con otros seis pa\u00edses: Jap\u00f3n,\u00a0China, Corea del Sur, Australia, Nueva\u00a0Zelanda e India. O bien, dicho en otras\u00a0palabras, algunos de los mismos pa\u00edses\u00a0que est\u00e1n en el TPP.<\/p>\n

El punto es que ni el RCEP, ni el TPP,\u00a0incluyen tanto a China como a Estados\u00a0Unidos. Aun as\u00ed, es posible que al menos\u00a0uno de estos acuerdos sirva de trampol\u00edn\u00a0para lograr la largamente so\u00f1ada \u00c1rea de\u00a0Libre Comercio Asia-Pac\u00edfico (FTAAP, en\u00a0su sigla en ingl\u00e9s).<\/p>\n

\u201cUn FTAAP parec\u00eda excesivamente\u00a0ambicioso en el pasado, pero se est\u00e1 transformando\u00a0en algo m\u00e1s real\u201d, dice Jeffrey\u00a0Schott del Instituto Peterson.<\/p>\n

Mucho depender\u00e1, naturalmente, de\u00a0China. Pero, seg\u00fan Schott, no es inconcebible\u00a0que antes del fin de esta d\u00e9cada dicho pa\u00eds\u00a0quisiera unirse al TPP. Recientemente de\u00a0regreso de una visita a China, \u00e9l reconoce\u00a0que no ser\u00e1 f\u00e1cil superar las desconfianzas\u00a0pol\u00edticas mutuas entre Washington y Beijing.\u00a0\u201cSin embargo, los l\u00edderes econ\u00f3micos chinos\u00a0est\u00e1n observando lo que el TPP exigir\u00eda en\u00a0t\u00e9rminos de reformas\u2026 y la lista de l\u00edneas\u00a0rojas, en t\u00e9rminos econ\u00f3micos, no es tan\u00a0larga\u201d, se\u00f1ala.<\/p>\n

De todas formas ya se discute otra idea\u00a0respecto de c\u00f3mo destrabar m\u00e1s los enormes\u00a0potenciales beneficios del libre comercio a\u00a0trav\u00e9s de la regi\u00f3n del Asia-Pac\u00edfico. Si los\u00a0aspectos pol\u00edticos de ampliar el TPP resultan\u00a0demasiado dif\u00edciles, se podr\u00eda negociar un acuerdo paraguas que complemente el\u00a0RCEP y el TPP; el que, imponiendo elevados\u00a0est\u00e1ndares y promoviendo la liberalizaci\u00f3n\u00a0comercial a trav\u00e9s de la regi\u00f3n, tendr\u00eda\u00a0reglas diferenciadas de acuerdo al nivel\u00a0de desarrollo de los pa\u00edses.<\/p>\n

\u00bfPodr\u00eda el mundo hacer todav\u00eda m\u00e1s\u00a0para aprovechar los beneficios del comercio?\u00a0Ciertamente, porque s\u00f3lo la liberalizaci\u00f3n\u00a0multilateral asegura la inclusi\u00f3n de pa\u00edses\u00a0pobres; precisamente los que m\u00e1s se\u00a0podr\u00edan beneficiar. Sin embargo, de no\u00a0ocurrir as\u00ed, acuerdos amplios y de altos\u00a0est\u00e1ndares como el TPP ser\u00edan un gran\u00a0paso hacia adelante.<\/p>\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 es lo\u00a0que viene?<\/strong><\/p>\n

La firma del TPP ha sido agendada para el pr\u00f3ximo\u00a0a\u00f1o, probablemente en Nueva Zelanda en febrero.\u00a0Pero ese hito ser\u00e1 s\u00f3lo el punto de partida de un largo\u00a0camino de ratificaci\u00f3n por los 12 pa\u00edses miembros,\u00a0quienes dispondr\u00e1n de dos a\u00f1os para su suscripci\u00f3n.\u00a0Y ah\u00ed es donde Estados Unidos ser\u00e1 clave.\u00a0
\n<\/strong>
\nLa reacci\u00f3n del congreso al texto del referido acuerdo\u00a0ha sido variada, seg\u00fan John Murphy de la C\u00e1mara\u00a0de Comercio de Estados Unidos, particularmente\u00a0entre los republicanos, quienes generalmente apoyan\u00a0los acuerdos de libre comercio. En este caso, sin\u00a0embargo, algunos han expresado su preocupaci\u00f3n o,\u00a0al menos, no se han manifestado claramente a favor\u00a0del acuerdo. Una raz\u00f3n para eso es la decepci\u00f3n de\u00a0ver rebajado el per\u00edodo de protecci\u00f3n para la informaci\u00f3n\u00a0relativa a productos farmac\u00e9uticos nuevos\u00a0a 5 a\u00f1os, de los 12 a\u00f1os solicitados originalmente\u00a0por Estados Unidos.
\n<\/strong>
\nEl per\u00edodo en el cual esto est\u00e1 ocurriendo es tambi\u00e9n\u00a0dif\u00edcil para Estados Unidos. Por ley, un estudio del\u00a0impacto del TPP en la econom\u00eda estadounidense debe\u00a0ser preparado antes de que el proyecto sea presentado\u00a0al congreso, y es posible que no est\u00e9 listo hasta\u00a0mediados de mayo pr\u00f3ximo, dejando as\u00ed solo un par\u00a0de meses antes del receso de verano del congreso.\u00a0Luego, una vez que reanude sus sesiones estar\u00e1 en\u00a0medio de la campa\u00f1a electoral. En consecuencia, es\u00a0bastante probable que no sea este congreso, sino el\u00a0pr\u00f3ximo -cuya composici\u00f3n a\u00fan se desconoce-, el\u00a0que deber\u00e1 decidir el futuro del TPP.[:en]A new trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, sealed in October, would not only reduce tariffs barriers but, far more importantly, the non-tariff that weigh particularly heavily on trade in services. Hailed as a game-changer for global trade, it now faces the test of ratification by the 12 member countries.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

By Ruth Bradley<\/strong><\/p>\n

The idea of free trade across the Pacific is far from new. It was first mooted in the late 1960s when the Pacific Trade and Development Forum (PAFTAD) was created, to be followed 20 years later by Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). But, although significant progress has been achieved in reducing tariffs, APEC’s 2010 target date for full liberalization of trade by its industrialized members came and went.<\/p>\n

Now, one strand of that vision is poised to become reality. Although still short of the ultimate objective -a Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)- the\u00a0 Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), on which agreement was reached in Atlanta in October after over five years of negotiations, would bring together 12 countries from Asia and the Americas -Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States and Vietnam- that account for some 40% of global GDP and close to 30% of world trade.<\/p>\n

The biggest trade deal in 20 years, it is a comprehensive, high-standard agreement. “In the absence of advances on the part of the World Trade Organization, it provides a global impetus to next-generation trade,” states Kathleen Barclay, president of AmCham Chile.<\/p>\n

Like older trade agreements, it would reduce tariffs, including some on the typically heavily protected agricultural sector but, more importantly, it would also introduce new rules to cut through the non-tariff barriers -such as cumbersome customs procedures and public procurement policies- that can, in these days of lower tariffs, be a much more serious barrier to trade. The TPP will, its members hope, also serve as a new benchmark for the conduct of trade and investment around the world.<\/p>\n

Much hope is pinned on its impact in freeing trade in services. Sectors like finance and telecommunications account for a huge share of GDP, particularly in developed countries, but, despite advances in information and communications technologies, still only a small fraction of global trade. And that is partly because of non-tariff barriers. A study by the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics in 2012 found that, in Mexico, for example, they were equivalent to a 44% tariff and, in Canada and Japan, around 15%, although only 6% in the United States.<\/p>\n

\"grhrhrehrere\"<\/p>\n

Calculating the potential benefits of a trade agreement of the scope of the TPP is complex. They will, after all, depend partly on how smart the member countries are in taking advantage of the new opportunities. However, the Peterson Institute estimates that, by 2025, it could boost global trade by US$305 billion, making it 1.1% higher than it would otherwise have been.<\/p>\n

Critics have decried this as small change. But the TPP’s advocates point out that supply-chain integration, perhaps the single most important key to unlocking its benefits, is necessarily a slow process, particularly in an agreement that brings together countries as different as, say, the United States and Vietnam.<\/p>\n

Chile<\/strong>‘s slice of the pie<\/strong><\/p>\n

For export-driven economies like Chile, Asia is crucial. And not only because of China’s hunger for natural resources. The IMF estimates that nearly half the world’s growth over the next five years will be in Asia and its fast-expanding middle classes mean that demand for imports is diversifying into products with ever more value added.<\/p>\n

The TPP, in fact, has its roots in the P4 trade agreement that Chile signed with Brunei, New Zealand and Singapore in 2005. Yet, some skepticism has been expressed about the gains for Chile, the only TPP member that already has Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with all the other partners.<\/p>\n

Andr\u00e9s Rebolledo, director general of international economic relations at the Foreign Ministry, points out that the TPP builds on Chile’s FTAs by including some products, principally in the agricultural sector, that they exclude. \u00a0Particularly in the Japanese, Canadian, Malaysian and Vietnamese markets, he says, some Chilean exports would see a reduction in tariffs or an increase in import quotas.<\/p>\n

Ahead of publication of a government study of the agreement’s implications for Chile, he suggests that the food industry would be one of the most benefited, with improved access for products that include beef, pork and salmon. For the forestry industry, he adds, there would be gains in access for manufactured products.<\/p>\n

The TPP’s cumulative rules of origin also represent a key opportunity for Chile, points out AmCham’s Kathleen Barclay. By allowing Chilean producers to use inputs from other member countries without losing tariff advantages, they could become the foundation for the development of the supply chains that, with innovation, would foster the diversification of exports that has long been identified as one of the country’s pending challenges.<\/p>\n

That could be something as simple as canning tropical fruit from Peru for export to one of the Asian partners. Or, perhaps, buying wood from another country and using Chilean design and workmanship to make furniture for export to the United States.<\/p>\n

According to the Peterson Institute, the deal could, by 2025, be adding US$2.5 billion per year to Chile’s GDP, equivalent to an extra 0.9 percentage points of growth. That is more than for the United States, which would see an increase of 0.4 percentage points, and Mexico, where the gain would reach 0.5 points, but slightly less than Peru’s 1.2 points.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

But, adds Rebolledo, there’s another crucial, underlying gain for Chile. “For a small, integrated country, trade rules are fundamental… and this is the most important agreement on the creation of new norms in 20 years.” Moreover, he points out that the standards with which Chile has complied for a decade now under its FTA with the United States mean that, in contrast to some of other TPP partners, implementation costs would be very low for Chile.<\/p>\n

Trade in South America<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), South America’s exports will shrink for the third consecutive year in 2015, with the drop deepening from 1.6% in 2013 and 7.3% in 2014 to 21.0% this year. That is largely the result of plunging commodity prices but also reflects a low level on intra-regional trade -much lower than in, for example, much of Asia- which has, moreover, been dropping more quickly than trade with other regions.<\/p>\n

On that score, South America has, indeed, been performing worse than Central America where intra-regional exports are growing, albeit slowly, in a trend attributed partly to the integration and supply-chain development promoted by Central American countries’ trade agreements with the United States, the European Union and Mexico. By contrast, South America is clearly divided into two groups of countries -on the Pacific and the Atlantic- a divide that it has been suggested the TPP could accentuate.<\/p>\n

Although Colombia is not a TPP partner -largely because it is not a member of APEC- it has expressed interest in joining. But the approach to trade of, say, Argentina and Brazil is at present quite different from the standards proposed under the TPP.<\/p>\n

According to Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute and a former US trade negotiator, the TPP could deepen the fissure within South America. There would, he argues, potentially be an impact on investment flows as countries that implement its standards become increasingly attractive to foreign investors as compared to the non-members. But it is, he clarifies, a symptom of the problem, not its cause.<\/p>\n

\"oooooooooooooooo\"
\nAndr\u00e9s Rebolledo takes a more optimistic view. “The TPP’s systemic effects in terms of norms will, I think, be sufficiently important…for other countries to evaluate them in the future,” he says.<\/p>\n

There is, he adds, room for the Pacific Alliance -formed by Chile, Colombia, Peru and Mexico- and the Mercosur trade block to negotiate agreements on specific issues such as trade facilitation on which two meetings have already taken place. And there is no reason why the TPP should affect that, he emphasizes.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, the Pacific Alliance also plans to continue moving forward with its own agenda. This includes areas not addressed by the TPP such as the movement of people, points out Rebolledo.<\/p>\n

Game-change in global trade?<\/strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

In recent years, growth of the volume of global trade has slowed sharply, dropping below that of world economic output which it has, in the past, sometimes doubled. That is partly because of Europe’s long cyclical downturn, but it also reflects structural changes including China’s tendency to make an increasing number of value-added products at home.<\/p>\n

However, it does not help that progress on trade liberalization has been slow. Although the World Trade Organization (WTO) reached an agreement on trade facilitation in 2013, principally to reduce customs red tape, the Doha round of talks has delivered only very modest results.<\/p>\n

The result has been a \u201cspaghetti bowl\u201d of regional and bilateral trade agreements, often with mutually incompatible rules. But the TPP may be just one sign that consolidation is beginning.<\/p>\n

In 2013, the United States and the European Union began negotiations on the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) which, because tariffs on products traded across the Atlantic are already close to zero, would focus on regulatory and other non-tariff barriers. Or, in other words, on harmonizing or, at least, mutually recognizing the other’s standards on matters like food testing or car safety.<\/p>\n

Progress has, however, been slow. According to some, that is because US attention has been absorbed by the TPP -President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia”- but there is also important public opposition to the agreement in Europe. However, according to John Murphy, senior vice-president for international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the benefits would be potentially greater than those of the TPP, just because trade flows across the Atlantic are so large.<\/p>\n

Similarly, in Asia, negotiations began in 2012 on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), bringing together the ten members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with six other countries (Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India). Or, in other words, some of the same countries that are in the TPP.<\/p>\n

The catch is that neither the RCEP nor the TPP includes both China and the US. Still, one of these agreements could just possibly serve as the stepping stone towards the long-dreamt-of Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). “An FTAAP seemed over-ambitious in the past, but is becoming more realistic,” says the Peterson Institute’s Jeffrey Schott.<\/p>\n

Much will, of course, depend on China. But, according to Schott, it is not inconceivable that, before the end of the decade, it could be wanting to join the TPP.<\/p>\n

Recently back from a visit to China, he recognizes that overcoming political mistrust between Washington and Beijing wouldn’t be easy. “But Chinese economic leaders are looking at what the TPP would demand in terms of reforms… and the list of red lines, economically, is not that long,” he reports.<\/p>\n

And, in any case, another idea for unleashing more of the potentially huge benefits of free trade across Asia-Pacific is already being discussed. If the politics of enlarging the TPP prove too intractable, an umbrella agreement might be negotiated to complement the RCEP and the TPP which, while setting high standards and fostering trade liberalization across the region, would have tiered rules for economies at different stages of development.<\/p>\n

Could the world still do more to harness the benefits of trade? Certainly, because only multilateral liberalization ensures the inclusion of poor countries, precisely the ones that stand to gain most. But, in its absence, broad and high-standard agreements like the TPP would be a huge step forward.<\/p>\n

What next?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The TPP is scheduled to be signed early next year, probably in New Zealand in February. But that will only be the start of the long road of ratification by all 12 partner countries for which a two-year deadline as from the signing has been set. And, there, the United States will be key.<\/p>\n

Reaction to the text of the agreement in Congress has been mixed, reports the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s John Murphy, most importantly among Republicans who generally support trade agreements. In this case, however, some have expressed concerns or have, at least, not come out clearly in favor. One reason for that is disappointment that the minimum period for protection of information relating to new pharmaceutical products was reduced to five years, rather than the 12 years that the US had requested.<\/p>\n

Timing is also bad for the US. By law, a study of the TPP’s impact on the US economy has to be prepared before it goes to Congress and that may not be ready until mid-May, leaving just two months before the summer recess. Then, once Congress reconvenes, it will be in the throes of an election campaign. There is, therefore, a strong chance that it will not be this Congress but the next one, with its still unknown composition, that gets to decide the future of the TPP.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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