\nPortfolio Manager Head\u00a0of Andean Equities
\nIta\u00fa Asset Management<\/p>\n
![\"oyoyoyoyuoyu\"](\"http:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/12\/oyoyoyoyuoyu-1024x390.jpg\")
[:en]This column has frequently addressed some of the various internal and external challenges that Chile has faced in recent years, which have resulted in slower growth and lower investment rates.\u00a0 The focus has tended to be on the usual suspects: China, commodities, sticky inflation and the domestic reform agenda.\u00a0 However, regional politics have also played an important role in this equation.\u00a0 Certain hotspots have increased the risk profile and contributed to the increasing economic malaise throughout Latin America (LatAm).\u00a0 Despite the still gloomy outlook of many market participants, the \u201cother\u201d LatAm scenario of broader policy orthodoxy and pragmatism has become increasingly plausible and could help the region, including Chile, embark on a new chapter of secular growth over the next 2-3 years.<\/p>\n
A series of events are sending shockwaves throughout the financial markets and have important implications for the region, especially the core of Mercosur, a sub-regional bloc led by Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela, whose policies have stood in sharp contrast to the more orthodox Pacific Alliance.\u00a0 On November 22, pro-business candidate Mauricio Macri was elected president of Argentina, ending 12 years of unorthodox policies and investment stagnation under the Kirchner regime.\u00a0 \u00a0In Brazil, which has suffered a significant recession, new actors within the government are focused on tackling fiscal and monetary bottlenecks, as well as the deep roots of corruption.\u00a0 Meanwhile, the opposition in Venezuela is growing in strength ahead of mid-term elections and could succeed in broadening the political discourse, something that Macri alluded to in his victory speech.<\/p>\n
The Pacific Alliance also has its share of important events, specifically an ongoing peace process in Colombia, which could end the 50+ year conflict in that country and help advance its ongoing transformation.\u00a0 In addition, Peru will elect a new president in May 2016.\u00a0 Current polls favor well known market friendly candidates with ample leadership experience and a focus on debottlenecking investment execution, which could also serve as an important growth driver.<\/p>\n
With the latest consensus forecasts pointing towards LatAm real GDP growth -0.7% in 2015 and just 0.5% in 2016, it seems the region may be nearing its bottom.\u00a0 With commodity prices seemingly more stable and fears of a hard-landing in China subsiding, policy-led inflection could have an even greater impact on bringing the region back towards its potential growth of around 3-4%.<\/p>\n
Clearly, adjusting distortions and accelerating progress across the region will not be easy and could bring its own set of new challenges. However, even modest success is likely to boost sentiment and bring down risk spreads, helping to attract new capital and incite a new round of growth.\u00a0 If this can be achieved in just 1-2 key markets, it potentially has the power to impact the entire region, especially Chile, given its open economy and regionalized businesses. It is also likely to serve as a reminder of the need to preserve sound policies that have been a model for the region.<\/p>\n
LatAm Political Calendar<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n [:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" [:es]En esta columna he comentado\u00a0con frecuencia algunos de los\u00a0diversos desaf\u00edos internos y\u00a0externos que Chile ha enfrentado\u00a0en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, los cuales\u00a0han resultado en crecimiento m\u00e1s lento y\u00a0tasas de inversi\u00f3n m\u00e1s bajas. El enfoque\u00a0ha tendido a estar en los mismos temas\u00a0de siempre: China, materias primas, la\u00a0inflaci\u00f3n y la agenda de reformas internas.\u00a0Sin embargo, la pol\u00edtica regional […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-9478","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n\n\n
\n Date<\/strong><\/td>\n Country<\/strong><\/td>\n Event<\/strong><\/td>\n Comments<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Oct-15<\/td>\n Colombia<\/td>\n Bogota Mayoral Election<\/td>\n Pe\u00f1alosa returns to office<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Nov-15<\/td>\n Argentina<\/td>\n Presidential Election<\/td>\n Macri wins, ends Kirchnerism<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Dec-15<\/td>\n Venezuela<\/td>\n Congressional Elections<\/td>\n Opposition leading polls<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Jan-15<\/td>\n Brazil<\/td>\n Potential Impeachment Process<\/td>\n Recent scandals reigniting the case<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Jan-15<\/td>\n Bolivia<\/td>\n Morales 3rd Term Referendum<\/td>\n Opposition mounting<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Mar-16<\/td>\n Colombia<\/td>\n Peace Process Deadline<\/td>\n Ongoing negotiations<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Apr-16<\/td>\n Peru<\/td>\n Presidential Election<\/td>\n Pro-market candidates leading polls<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2017<\/td>\n Ecuador<\/td>\n Presidential Election<\/td>\n Correa to step down<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 2017<\/td>\n Chile<\/td>\n Presidential Election<\/td>\n Bachelet\u2019s final term<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n