<\/p>\n
Tulio Vera es uno de los chilenos <\/span>mejor posicionados en el <\/span>\u00e1mbito financiero en Estados <\/span>Unidos (EE.UU.). Con una <\/span>amplia experiencia en mercados <\/span>emergentes y Am\u00e9rica Latina, actualmente <\/span>es el director ejecutivo y jefe de estrategia <\/span>de inversiones de J. P. Morgan Private <\/span>Bank para Am\u00e9rica Latina. Fue gerente <\/span>de carteras de fondos macro y deuda en <\/span>mercados emergentes en Millennium Partners, <\/span>as\u00ed como jefe de estrategia de fondos <\/span>macro y deuda en mercados emergentes <\/span>de Merrill Lynch.<\/span><\/p>\n Desde la tribuna del experto y con una maestr\u00eda y candidato a doctor en finanzas internacionales y econom\u00eda monetaria de la Universidad de Nueva York bajo el brazo, analiza el escenario econ\u00f3mico de Estados Unidos, argumentando que el pa\u00eds est\u00e1 creciendo a un ritmo bastante sano. <\/p>\n -\u00bfLe sorprendi\u00f3 que el PIB de EE.UU. creciera 4%, en el per\u00edodo abril-junio?<\/strong> -\u00bfQu\u00e9 sectores est\u00e1n empujando el crecimiento?<\/strong> – No obstante, el gasto de los consumidores creci\u00f3 2,5 % entre abril y junio, \u00bfno ve dinamismo?<\/strong> -\u00bfDe qu\u00e9 va a depender su recuperaci\u00f3n?<\/strong> -\u00bfY c\u00f3mo se relaciona esta situaci\u00f3n con el rubro de la vivienda?<\/strong> – \u00bfC\u00f3mo eval\u00faa que se est\u00e1 llevando a cabo la recuperaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos?<\/strong> <\/p>\n Tulio Vera is one of the best positioned Chileans in the financial sector in the United States. With vast experience in emerging markets and Latin America, he is currently Executive Director and Chief Investment Strategist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank for Latin America. Previously, he was Portfolio Manager at Millennium Capital Partners for macro and debt portfolios in emerging markets, and Chief Macro Funds and Debt Strategist for emerging markets at Merrill Lynch.<\/p>\n From his standpoint as an expert, with a Master\u2019s degree and candidacy for a Doctorate in International Finance and Monetary Economics from New York University, he analyzes the world of economics in the United States. He argues that the US is currently growing at a very healthy rate.<\/p>\n – \u00bfAre you surprised that GDP grew by 4.4% in the US between April and June?<\/strong> – \u00bfWhich sectors are driving the growth?<\/strong> – Nevertheless, consumer expenditure grew by 2.5% between April and June. \u00bfDo you not see any dynamism? – \u00bfOn what will their recovery depend?<\/strong> – \u00bfAnd how does this situation relate to housing?<\/strong> The other area that has not grown particularly fast is the financial sector. Banks are more and more regulated, and this has also affected the fact that long term rates in the US are still very low. The yield on ten-year bonds is 2.5%, meaning the curve is very flat. The fact that rates have not started to rise, as many had hoped, is of no real favor to the banks.<\/p>\n QUOTE – \u201cThe labor market has been improving, the rate of unemployment keeps falling, but there is one part that is still not firing on all cylinders, which is that of wages. They are not picking up, and this is because the economy is not working at full capacity. Wages have increased by about 2% or 2.25% per year, which is relatively low\u201d.<\/p>\n – \u00bfHow do you evaluate the recovery in the United States?<\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n Tulio Vera es uno de los chilenos <\/span>mejor posicionados en el <\/span>\u00e1mbito financiero en Estados <\/span>Unidos (EE.UU.). Con una <\/span>amplia experiencia en mercados <\/span>emergentes y Am\u00e9rica Latina, actualmente <\/span>es el director ejecutivo y jefe de estrategia <\/span>de inversiones de J. P. Morgan Private <\/span>Bank para Am\u00e9rica Latina.<\/p>\n Tulio Vera es uno de los chilenos <\/span>mejor posicionados en el <\/span>\u00e1mbito financiero en Estados <\/span>Unidos (EE.UU.). Con una <\/span>amplia experiencia en mercados <\/span>emergentes y Am\u00e9rica Latina, actualmente <\/span>es el director ejecutivo y jefe de estrategia <\/span>de inversiones de J. P. Morgan Private <\/span>Bank para Am\u00e9rica Latina.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-5242","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Sali\u00f3 bastante mejor de lo que se <\/span>esperaba. Y hubo revisiones a n\u00fameros <\/span>anteriores, donde la segunda mitad de <\/span>2013 mejor\u00f3 y del primer trimestre de <\/span>2014, que hab\u00eda sido negativo, pas\u00f3 de <\/span>– 2,9% a – 2,1%. Esto dice que la econom\u00eda <\/span>se est\u00e1 recuperando. Hab\u00eda mucha <\/span>preocupaci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos porque <\/span>el primer trimestre podr\u00eda haber sido algo <\/span>m\u00e1s que simplemente un invierno crudo, <\/span>y la evidencia ahora muestra que s\u00ed era el <\/span>clima y que la econom\u00eda no se descarril\u00f3.<\/span><\/p>\n
Hay sectores que est\u00e1n mejorando bastante bien, como el manufacturero y servicios. Dentro de \u00e9stos, el energ\u00e9tico est\u00e1 bastante sano; el healthcare o salud y el tecnol\u00f3gico tambi\u00e9n. Hay varias industrias que est\u00e1n haciendo que la recuperaci\u00f3n sea amplia. Pero el tema que sigue lento es el consumidor, que qued\u00f3 muy golpeado a ra\u00edz de la crisis financiera y no est\u00e1 consumiendo al ritmo de la econom\u00eda, o quiz\u00e1s ni un poco menos. Pero no se est\u00e1 desarrollando tan bien como uno esperar\u00eda.<\/p>\n
Hay dinamismo, pero el tema es que sus balances quedaron golpeados por la crisis. La crisis inmobiliaria peg\u00f3 mucho, y (el consumidor) qued\u00f3 con aversi\u00f3n al riesgo. Est\u00e1 siendo muy conservador. Se ha ido desapalancando en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os y el servicio de deuda que tienen ha bajado mucho. Pero su impulso a tomar riesgo a\u00fan no vuelve y va a demorar un tiempo. Pas\u00f3 por un shock fuerte durante <\/span>la crisis, no tanto como la gran depresi\u00f3n <\/span>de los a\u00f1os 30, pero se va a demorar un <\/span>tiempo en recuperarse.<\/span><\/p>\n
De varias cosas. Primero, que se vea que la econom\u00eda se est\u00e1 recuperando de manera sostenible. Ahora estamos en un punto interesante en el ciclo, porque se est\u00e1n empezando a ver datos m\u00e1s consistentes. Ha ido mejorando el mercado laboral, la tasa de desempleo sigue cayendo, pero hay una parte que todav\u00eda no gatilla, que son los salarios. No repuntan, y eso es porque la econom\u00eda no est\u00e1 funcionando a su capacidad. Los salarios han aumentado del orden de 2% o 2,25% al a\u00f1o, algo relativamente bajo.<\/p>\n
Est\u00e1 vinculado. Cuando miras la bolsa americana, el sector est\u00e1 abajo. Es el \u00fanico que est\u00e1 bajo, y viene tambi\u00e9n porque les fue bien el a\u00f1o pasado y el anterior, pero igual refleja que el consumidor todav\u00eda no repunta como lo han <\/span>hecho otros rubros, ya que normalmente <\/span>tiene su dinero invertido en propiedades. <\/span>El sector de consumo discrecional es el <\/span>sector que le ha ido peor en la bolsa. La <\/span>industria inmobiliaria se est\u00e1 recuperando, <\/span>pero a un ritmo algo m\u00e1s lento, en parte <\/span>por lo que pas\u00f3 en 2008 y la burbuja que <\/span>se hab\u00eda creado antes. <\/span>El otro sector que no ha crecido tan <\/span>r\u00e1pido es el financiero. La banca est\u00e1 cada <\/span>vez m\u00e1s regulada, y tambi\u00e9n ha afectado <\/span>el hecho que las tasas de largo plazo en <\/span>este pa\u00eds todav\u00eda est\u00e1n muy bajas. El <\/span>rendimiento del bono a 10 a\u00f1os es de <\/span>2,5%, y eso implica que la curva est\u00e1 muy <\/span>aplanada. El hecho de que las tasas no <\/span>han empezado a subir, como mucha gente <\/span>espera, no les favorece tanto a los bancos.<\/span><\/p>\n
En t\u00e9rminos hist\u00f3ricos y de las recuperaciones post II Guerra Mundial, \u00e9sta ha sido m\u00e1s lenta porque tuvimos una crisis financiera muy fuerte. Pienso que estamos en la mitad del ciclo.<\/p>\n
It was much better than expected. And revisions were made of previous figures, in which the second half of 2013 had improved, and then the first quarter of 2014, which was negative, changed from -2.9% to -2.1%. This means the economy is recovering. There was a great deal of concern in the United States, because the first quarter could have been something more than simply a rough winter. In fact, the evidence now shows that it was indeed the weather, and the economy was not derailed after all. <\/span><\/p>\n
Some sectors are undergoing notable improvements, such as manufacturing and services. Among these industries, energy is fairly healthy; healthcare and technology too. There are a number of industries doing well, meaning recovery is becoming more widespread. But the area that remains slow is the consumer, hit so severely during the financial crisis, and consumption is not keeping up with the rate of economic growth. It is not progressing as well as it was hoped.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/strong>There is some dynamism, but the issue is that consumers\u2019 balance sheets were hit hard by the crisis. The real estate crisis was really significant, and (the consumer) was left with an aversion to risk. They are being very conservative. They have been deleveraging in recent years and their debt service has fallen considerably. But their impulse for risk taking has not yet returned and will take a long time to do so. They underwent a severe shock during the crisis, not as hard as the Great Depression of the 1930s, but the consumer will take some time to fully recover.<\/span><\/p>\n
On many things. Firstly, for them to see the economy recovering in sustainable way. At the moment, we are at an interesting point in the cycle because more consistent data is beginning to be seen. The labor market has been improving, the rate of unemployment keeps falling, but there is one part that is still not firing on all cylinders, which is that of wages. They are not picking up, and this is because the economy is not working at full capacity. Wages have increased by about 2% or 2.25% per year, which is relatively low.<\/span><\/p>\n
It is linked. When you take a look at the US stock exchange, the sector is struggling. It is the only area that is so low, and comes off the back of the last two years which were good. But it also reflects how the consumer has still not rebounded, like other areas have, because normally people have their money invested in property. The consumer discretionary sector is the one that has done the worst on the stock market. The real estate industry is in recovery, but at a somewhat slower rate, in part because of what happened in 2008 and the bubble that had been created.<\/span><\/p>\n
In historical terms and in relation to post-World War II recoveries, this one has been slower because the financial crisis was so severe. I think that we are about halfway through the cycle. <\/span><\/p>\n