<\/p>\n
El crecimiento de 4%\u00a0del Producto Interno\u00a0Bruto (PIB) en el\u00a0segundo trimestre\u00a0sorprendi\u00f3 al mercado,\u00a0como tampoco era esperable la gran ca\u00edda\u00a0que hubo en el primer trimestre. Pero\u00a0siempre he pensado que Estados Unidos\u00a0es una econom\u00eda que tiene m\u00e1s fuerza que\u00a0lo que la gente piensa\u201d, explica Vittorio\u00a0Corbo, economista e investigador senior\u00a0del Centro de Estudios P\u00fablicos (CEP).<\/p>\n
Y es que para el ex presidente del\u00a0Consejo del Banco Central de Chile, la\u00a0flexibilidad de la econom\u00eda estadounidense\u00a0ha permitido resolver los problemas de la\u00a0crisis desde un comienzo. \u201cDe las econom\u00edas\u00a0m\u00e1s avanzadas, es la que ten\u00eda la mejor\u00a0oportunidad de empezar a recuperarse\u201d,\u00a0se\u00f1ala. No obstante, prefiere ser cauteloso,\u00a0expresando que si se mira el crecimiento\u00a0desde que el pa\u00eds sali\u00f3 de la crisis, ha sido\u00a0en promedio de 2,2% en los \u00faltimos cinco\u00a0a\u00f1os, lo que es algo \u201ctenue\u201d.<\/p>\n
-\u00bfLa recuperaci\u00f3n de Estados Unidos\u00a0es sostenible en el tiempo?<\/strong> Las tasas de crecimiento sostenibles\u00a0van a ser m\u00e1s modestas de lo que pens\u00e1bamos\u00a0<\/span>antes de la crisis, porque alg\u00fan\u00a0<\/span>da\u00f1o queda. Este crecimiento de 4% vino\u00a0<\/span>despu\u00e9s de una ca\u00edda brutal y estamos\u00a0<\/span>discutiendo cu\u00e1l ser\u00e1 la velocidad de crucero.\u00a0<\/span>Lo m\u00e1s probable es que la econom\u00eda\u00a0<\/span>va a crecer hacia adelante en promedio\u00a0<\/span>2% y 2,5%. El pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o ser\u00e1 mejor,\u00a0<\/span>porque estamos saliendo todav\u00eda de un\u00a0<\/span>gran exceso de capacidad. En 2015 no\u00a0<\/span>descarto un crecimiento de 3%, transitoriamente.\u00a0<\/span>Dir\u00eda que entre 2,5% y 3,5%, en\u00a0<\/span>2015. Es muy probable que m\u00e1s de 3%.\u00a0<\/span>Pero despu\u00e9s, la econom\u00eda va a empezar\u00a0<\/span>a crecer m\u00e1s cerca del producto potencial.<\/span><\/p>\n – \u00bfCu\u00e1ndo cree que la Reserva\u00a0Federal (FED) comenzar\u00e1 a normalizar\u00a0la pol\u00edtica monetaria y empezar a retirar\u00a0los est\u00edmulos?<\/strong> – \u00bfCu\u00e1ndo deber\u00eda hacerlo?<\/strong> – \u00bfSe utilizar\u00e1n las mismas herramientas de antes, como la venta de\u00a0bonos o buscar\u00e1n otras alternativas\u00a0para evitar la inflaci\u00f3n? – \u00bfNo se buscar\u00e1 otra f\u00f3rmula?<\/strong> – Usted se\u00f1al\u00f3 que ya comienza a\u00a0haber riesgo de inflaci\u00f3n. \u00bfVisualiza un\u00a0impacto en el escenario inflacionario\u00a0en el mediano plazo?<\/strong> Mayor prudencia<\/strong> – \u00bfQu\u00e9 impacto tendr\u00e1 para Chile\u00a0las mejores cifras de la econom\u00eda de\u00a0Estados Unidos? Riesgo de burbujas<\/strong><\/p>\n Para algunos expertos, la inyecci\u00f3n\u00a0de dinero podr\u00eda haber generado sobreprecios\u00a0en el mercado burs\u00e1til. \u00bfSe\u00a0crearon burbujas?<\/strong> -\u00bfPero en qu\u00e9 sectores hay o habr\u00e1\u00a0burbuja?<\/strong> -Tambi\u00e9n se ha hablado del \u00e1rea salud.<\/strong> <\/p>\n \u201cGDP growth of 4% in the second half of the year surprised the market, as too did the unexpected and large fall that occurred in the first six month period. I have always believed that the United States economy is stronger than people think\u201d, says Vittorio Corbo, Economist and Senior Researcher from the Center of Public Studies (CEP). For the ex-Governor of the Board of the Chilean Central Bank, the flexibility of the US economy has enabled it to resolve the problems caused by the crisis from the very beginning. \u201cOf the most advanced economies, it is the one with the best opportunity to begin the process of recovery\u201d, he notes. Nonetheless, he prefers to be cautious, saying that if growth is observed from the point at which the country emerged from the crisis, on average it has been 2.2% over the last five years, which is somewhat \u201cweak\u201d.<\/p>\n – \u00bfIs the US recovery sustainable in the long term?<\/strong> Sustainable rates of growth will be more modest than what we thought prior to the crisis, because some damage stays. This 4% growth came after a brutal fall and we are now talking about what the comfortable cruising speed may be. The most likely scenario is that the economy continues to grow at an average of 2% and 2.5%. Next year will be better, because there is still a large excess capacity in place.\u00a0 In 2015, I do not discount growth of 3%, transitory. I would say between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2015. More than 3% is very likely. But afterwards, the economy will start growing closer to its potential output.<\/p>\n The most likely scenario is that the economy continues to grow at an average of 2% and 2.5%.<\/p>\n – \u00bfWhen do you think the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will begin to normalize monetary policy and start to withdraw its stimulus? – \u00bfWhen should it be done? But all the stimulus efforts introduced to jump-start the economy, if they continue, could be creating bubbles or financial stability problems for the future. If financial stability problems arise, prudent macro regulations will be used to control the financial systems, but they do not have much experience in this area. It would be better to use more traditional medicine, which is to begin withdrawing the monetary stimulus.<\/p>\n – \u00bfWill the same tools be used as before, like the sale of bonds, or will efforts be made to find other alternatives for avoiding inflation? – Will another method not be sought?<\/strong> – You indicated that there is already a risk of inflation. \u00bfDo you see an impact on the inflationary scenario in the medium term?<\/strong> More prudence \u2013 In the long term, \u00bfdo you think that the crisis will leave some kind of permanent structural change in the US economy? On the positive side, and one which may be of a surprise to us, is the technology revolution relating to the production of gasoline. The US economy has managed to implement the main technological revolutions of the last 30 years, and there could be another one on its way, similar to what we are witnessing in gasoline.<\/p>\n – What impact will the improved economic figures from the United States have on Chile?<\/strong> Risk of bubbles<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n – Some experts think that the injection of money could have generated over-inflated prices in the stock market. \u00bfHas it created bubbles?<\/strong> – \u00bfBut in which sectors are there, or will there, be bubbles?<\/strong> – The healthcare sector has also been mentioned<\/strong> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n El crecimiento de 4% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en el segundo trimestre sorprendi\u00f3 al mercado, como tampoco era esperable la gran ca\u00edda que hubo en el primer trimestre. Pero siempre he pensado que Estados Unidos es una econom\u00eda que tiene m\u00e1s fuerza que lo que la gente piensa\u201d, explica Vittorio Corbo, economista e investigador senior del Centro de Estudios P\u00fablicos (CEP).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n El crecimiento de 4% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en el segundo trimestre sorprendi\u00f3 al mercado, como tampoco era esperable la gran ca\u00edda que hubo en el primer trimestre. Pero siempre he pensado que Estados Unidos es una econom\u00eda que tiene m\u00e1s fuerza que lo que la gente piensa\u201d, explica Vittorio Corbo, economista e investigador senior del Centro de Estudios P\u00fablicos (CEP).<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-5241","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
\n-Las cifras entregadas van a validar\u00a0el hecho de que Estados Unidos va bien\u00a0en su recuperaci\u00f3n. Va a llevar a mucha\u00a0gente a pensar que su econom\u00eda tiene\u00a0fuerza suficiente, pero todav\u00eda queda\u00a0mucho da\u00f1o de los factores que llevaron\u00a0a la crisis, donde muchos de ellos todav\u00eda\u00a0no se han corregido. Todav\u00eda tenemos un\u00a0<\/span>endeudamiento de las familias con respecto\u00a0<\/span>al ingreso que, aunque ha bajado,\u00a0<\/span>todav\u00eda es alto. Hay endeudamiento del\u00a0<\/span>Gobierno en el ingreso, que es alto por el\u00a0<\/span>d\u00e9ficit que se gener\u00f3 en los a\u00f1os de crisis.\u00a0<\/span>Hay mucha discusi\u00f3n sobre cu\u00e1l es la\u00a0<\/span>nueva tasa de crecimiento potencial, de\u00a0<\/span>si esta crisis le ha hecho da\u00f1o. La Oficina\u00a0<\/span>de Presupuesto del Congreso, que es una\u00a0<\/span>instituci\u00f3n aut\u00f3noma y que no responde\u00a0<\/span>a ning\u00fan partido pol\u00edtico, ha revisado a\u00a0<\/span>la baja el crecimiento potencial. Hoy d\u00eda,\u00a0<\/span>hablamos que Estados Unidos no puede\u00a0<\/span>crecer m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de 2% o 2,2% sin que se\u00a0<\/span>creen problemas de desequilibrio y de\u00a0<\/span>inflaci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n\u00c9sa es la discusi\u00f3n de los pr\u00f3ximos\u00a0meses, ahora que est\u00e1 claro que la FED\u00a0va a terminar su programa de compra de\u00a0bonos en octubre, es en qu\u00e9 momento\u00a0empieza a retirar el alcohol para que no se\u00a0emborrachen los presentes. La econom\u00eda\u00a0est\u00e1 creciendo por encima del crecimiento\u00a0potencial y empieza a comerse las brechas\u00a0de capacidad que se hab\u00edan acumulado,\u00a0y comienza a haber riesgo de inflaci\u00f3n.\u00a0No se resalt\u00f3 mucho, pero las cifras de\u00a0inflaci\u00f3n de la canasta de consumo que\u00a0se utiliza para la construcci\u00f3n de las\u00a0cuentas nacionales ha ido subiendo. Est\u00e1\u00a0en la zona en la cual la Reserva Federal\u00a0empieza a complicarse. En el margen,\u00a0<\/span>est\u00e1 creciendo sobre 2%, la meta es 2%,\u00a0<\/span>entonces ya va a empezar la discusi\u00f3n con\u00a0<\/span>mucha m\u00e1s fuerza de en qu\u00e9 momento\u00a0<\/span>empieza a retirar los bonos o comenzar\u00a0<\/span>a subir la tasa.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nEl mercado hasta hace poco tiempo\u00a0pensaba que avanzado el segundo trimestre\u00a0o comienzos del tercero. Cuatro\u00a0meses atr\u00e1s se pensaba que ser\u00eda en 2016,\u00a0ahora se piensa que 2015. Esto se va a\u00a0ir anticipando al segundo trimestre del\u00a0pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. El mercado va a leer mucho\u00a0las palabras de la FED respecto a cu\u00e1n\u00a0preocupado est\u00e1n. De hecho, Charles\u00a0Plossep vot\u00f3 en contra de la frase de que\u00a0lo m\u00e1s probable es que las tasas se van a\u00a0mantener bajas por mucho tiempo. Vamos\u00a0a ver cada vez m\u00e1s miembros del Consejo\u00a0de la Reserva Federal preocupados de que\u00a0la econom\u00eda empieza a comerse el exceso\u00a0de capacidad de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. Y ah\u00ed\u00a0la inflaci\u00f3n empieza a subir.\u00a0Pero todos los est\u00edmulos que se introdujeron\u00a0para echar a andar la econom\u00eda, si\u00a0siguen, pueden estar creando burbujas o\u00a0problemas de estabilidad financiera hacia\u00a0el futuro. Si hay problemas de estabilidad\u00a0financiera, lo que se va a usar son regulaciones\u00a0macro prudenciales para controlar\u00a0los sistemas financieros, pero no tienen\u00a0mucha experiencia en ellas. Mejor usar la\u00a0medicina m\u00e1s tradicional, que es empezar\u00a0a retirar los est\u00edmulos monetarios.<\/p>\n
\n<\/span><\/strong>Van a utilizar la forma m\u00e1s tradicional.Tiene un stock de bonos brutales que han\u00a0acumulado estos a\u00f1os para reactivar la\u00a0econom\u00eda. Lo que va a empezar a hacer\u00a0es retirar liquidez vendiendo esos bonos.\u00a0La idea es vender esos instrumentos al\u00a0mercado y con eso va a ir restringiendo\u00a0<\/span>la capacidad de pr\u00e9stamo de los bancos.\u00a0<\/span>Es el mecanismo m\u00e1s tradicional.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nCreo que va a hacer eso.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nS\u00ed, la econom\u00eda empieza a crecer por\u00a0encima del potencial por mucho tiempo,\u00a0pero todav\u00eda hay espacio para que crezca\u00a0por encima de ello. Estuvo muy por\u00a0debajo del potencial por mucho tiempo.\u00a0Si la econom\u00eda puede crecer en velocidad\u00a0crucero en 2% o 2,5% hacia delante,\u00a0cuando el exceso de capacidad omience\u00a0a ir desapareciendo, en ese momento el\u00a0riesgo de inflaci\u00f3n va a ser cada vez m\u00e1s\u00a0importante. Hoy d\u00eda, con este crecimiento\u00a0de 4% en el segundo trimestre, nos\u00a0comimos el exceso de capacidad de a\u00f1os\u00a0anteriores, pero todav\u00eda queda capacidad.\u00a0Pero la FED va a monitorear con mucho\u00a0cuidado las presiones inflacionarias que\u00a0se van a empezar a incubar cuando la\u00a0econom\u00eda empiece a crecer por un per\u00edodo\u00a0sostenido. Hasta hoy, en el mercado\u00a0laboral queda mucho m\u00e1s espacio antes\u00a0de que comiencen a crearse presiones\u00a0salariales, y yo concuerdo. Ahora todo\u00a0apunta a que la creaci\u00f3n de empleo va a\u00a0subir, la inversi\u00f3n de las empresas tambi\u00e9n,\u00a0porque ven un futuro mejor. La econom\u00eda\u00a0muestra mejores signos de salud hoy que\u00a0hace dos o tres a\u00f1os.<\/p>\n
\n– \u00bfEn el largo plazo, usted cree\u00a0que la crisis va a dejar alg\u00fan cambio\u00a0<\/span>estructural en la econom\u00eda de Estados\u00a0<\/span><\/strong>Unidos?<\/strong>
\n<\/span>Si pensamos en la \u00e9poca 2003-2007,\u00a0<\/span>la econom\u00eda creci\u00f3 a una tasa muy buena,\u00a0<\/span>pero requiri\u00f3 de muchos est\u00edmulos,\u00a0<\/span>como los atletas que usaron est\u00edmulos\u00a0<\/span>para tener buen rendimiento. Se crearon\u00a0<\/span>efectos colaterales: a los atletas se les\u00a0<\/span>destruye el h\u00edgado, entre otras cosas, y a\u00a0<\/span>la econom\u00eda, y al sistema financiero, se le\u00a0<\/span>cre\u00f3 un riesgo excesivo. Lo m\u00e1s probable\u00a0<\/span>es, que hacia adelante, el crecimiento\u00a0<\/span>ser\u00e1 con mucha m\u00e1s prudencia y, dichos\u00a0<\/span>est\u00edmulos estar\u00e1n prohibidos. Lo que\u00a0<\/span>vamos a ver, por ejemplo, es un sector\u00a0<\/span>de la construcci\u00f3n con una contribuci\u00f3n\u00a0<\/span>m\u00e1s modesta que en ese per\u00edodo, con\u00a0<\/span>crecimientos menores que esos a\u00f1os,\u00a0<\/span>pero m\u00e1s sostenible. Ahora los bancos\u00a0<\/span>tienen que ser mucho m\u00e1s prudentes en\u00a0<\/span>los pr\u00e9stamos. Van a solicitar un pie m\u00e1s\u00a0<\/span>grande para la compra de una casa, y\u00a0<\/span>eso va a dejar fuera a gente que no tiene\u00a0<\/span>las condiciones para hacerlo.\u00a0<\/span>El lado positivo, y que nos uede\u00a0<\/span>sorprender hacia arriba, es la revoluci\u00f3n\u00a0<\/span>tecnol\u00f3gica en lo que se refiere a\u00a0<\/span>la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo. La econom\u00eda\u00a0<\/span>americana ha sido capaz de hacer las\u00a0<\/span>principales revoluciones tecnol\u00f3gicas de\u00a0<\/span>los \u00faltimos 30 a\u00f1os, puede haber otra,\u00a0<\/span>parecida a lo que estamos viendo en el\u00a0<\/span>petr\u00f3leo.<\/span><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Va a tener un efecto positivo para Chile,\u00a0<\/span>por el hecho de que nosotros tenemos una\u00a0<\/span>canasta de exportaci\u00f3n muy diversificada\u00a0<\/span>hacia Estados Unidos. anteniendo el\u00a0<\/span>resto de las cosas sin cambios, el hecho\u00a0<\/span>de que un socio importante como Estados\u00a0<\/span>Unidos crezca sobre 3%, en vez de 2% (este\u00a0<\/span>2014), va a hacer que sea un mercado muy\u00a0<\/span>atractivo para exportar. Eso tambi\u00e9n va a\u00a0<\/span>ayudar a Europa, es un vaso comunicante,\u00a0<\/span>porque Estados Unidos tambi\u00e9n ser\u00e1 un\u00a0<\/span>buen mercado para empresas europeas,\u00a0<\/span>lo que har\u00e1 que dicho continente tenga\u00a0<\/span>algo m\u00e1s de crecimiento. Estados Unidos\u00a0<\/span>nos va a crear un ambiente en los pa\u00edses\u00a0<\/span>avanzados mejor que el de 2012 y 2013,\u00a0<\/span>que tambi\u00e9n ayuda a Chile.<\/span><\/p>\n
\nHay una preocupaci\u00f3n. Si miramos\u00a0el \u00faltimo informe del Banco de Pagos\u00a0Internacionales, el tema central fue el\u00a0mantenimiento de est\u00edmulos monetarios,
\ntasa de inter\u00e9s y compra de bonos,\u00a0donde hay que tener cuidado, porque\u00a0se puede estar alimentando la pr\u00f3xima\u00a0crisis financiera. Hay una preocupaci\u00f3n\u00a0de que los precios de los activos inmobiliarios\u00a0en muchos pa\u00edses est\u00e1n ricamente\u00a0valorados. Las bolsas tambi\u00e9n, entonces\u00a0hay una preocupaci\u00f3n. El banco fue m\u00e1s\u00a0all\u00e1 y dijo que tal vez hab\u00eda que subir\u00a0la tasa de inter\u00e9s para quitarle fuerza a\u00a0estos precios. Yo creo que es mucho. La\u00a0tasa tiene un rol importante que jugar\u00a0todav\u00eda, dado que la econom\u00eda tiene a\u00fan\u00a0mucho exceso de capacidad. Si ma\u00f1ana\u00a0se presentan problemas de posibles\u00a0burbujas, hay que experimentar con\u00a0regulaci\u00f3n macro prudencial, o como lo\u00a0hacen autoridades regulatorias en Chile,\u00a0exigiendo m\u00e1s provisiones cuando los\u00a0cr\u00e9ditos est\u00e1n financiando un valor muy\u00a0alto de la casa, por ejemplo.<\/p>\n
\nM\u00e1s que en el mercado burs\u00e1til, que\u00a0tuvo una ca\u00edda brutal en 2008 y 2009 y\u00a0lo que ha hecho ahora es recuperar, tal\u00a0vez donde s\u00ed pueda haber una burbuja es\u00a0en los precios de los bonos de empresas\u00a0con clasificaci\u00f3n de riesgo d\u00e9bil. Ah\u00ed puede\u00a0haber un poco de burbuja y est\u00e1n pagando\u00a0costos de financiamiento muy bajo.<\/p>\n
\nSi es verdad eso, no me preocupar\u00eda\u00a0porque no tiene efecto macro, porque es\u00a0un sector muy chico.<\/p>\n
Figures released will confirm the fact that the United States is recovering well. This will lead many people to think that their economy is strong enough. However, there is still a great amount of damage from the factors that led to the crisis, and many of them have not yet been corrected. There is still a lot of household debt with regard to income, which although it has fallen, remains high. There is Government debt, which is high due to the deficit that was built up during the crisis. There is also widespread discussion of the new potential rate of growth, and whether the crisis has impeded its advance. The Congressional Budget Office, an independent body that answers to no political party, has revised downwards potential growth. Today, we talk of how the United States cannot grow faster than 2% or 2.2% without generating problems of imbalance and deflation.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/strong>This is the discussion for the coming months, now that it is clear that the Fed will complete its bond buying program in October \u2013 it is like asking, at what point will the host remove the alcohol so the guests do not get drunk? The economy is growing beyond its potential rate and the output gaps which have accumulated will begin to shrink, at which point a risk of inflation will arise. They have not been too noteworthy, but inflation figures from the basket of consumer goods used to establish national accounts have been rising. This is the area in which the Federal Reserve begins to complicate matters. Marginal growth is above 2%, the target is 2%, and so lively discussions have already begun as to when to remove bonds or start raising the rate.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/strong>Until recently, the market thought at the end of the second quarter or the beginning of the third. Four months ago, it was thought to be in 2016, and now they think 2015. It will be brought forward to the second quarter of next year. The market will pay close attention to the words of the Fed regarding how concerned it is. In fact, Charles Plossep voted against the statement which declared the most likely scenario to be that rates remain low for some time yet. We will see an increasing number of the Board of the Fed showing concern about the economy beginning to consume the excess capacity of recent years. And at this point, inflation will begin to rise.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/strong>They will use the most traditional form. There is a stock of brutal bonds that have been accumulated over recent years for reactivating the economy. What they will begin doing is removing liquidity by selling these bonds. The idea is to sell these instruments to the market and, as a result, start restricting the capacity of bank lending.\u00a0 This is the more traditional mechanism.<\/span><\/p>\n
This is what I believe will happen.<\/span><\/p>\n
Yes, for a long time now the economy has begun to grow beyond its potential, but there is still room for it to expand beyond this. It was well below its potential for a long period. If the economy can grow at a steady rate of 2% or 2.5% onwards, when excess output begins to decline, this is when the risk of inflation becomes increasingly important. Today, with this growth of 4% in the second quarter, excess output has been consumed, but output still remains. But the Fed will carefully monitor inflationary pressures which will start to build up when the economy begins growing over a sustained period. Until today, there is still a lot of room in the labor market before wage pressure starts to build, and I am in agreement. Everything now points to an increase in job creation, and business investment too, because people are seeing a brighter future. The economy is showing healthier signs today than it was two or three years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n
<\/strong>If we think about the 2003-2007 period, the economy grew at a really good rate, but it required a lot of stimulus, just like an athlete uses stimulants to guarantee a good performance. These stimuli generate side effects: for athletes they destroy their livers, among other things, and for the economy, and the financial system, they created excessive risk. Chances are that, going forward, growth will be far more prudent and these kinds of stimuli will be prohibited. What we will see, for example, is a construction sector with a more modest contribution, and with lower but more sustainable growth than during this period. Now the banks have to be far more careful in their lending. They will be asking for more sizeable deposits for buying a house, and this will close the door on people who are unable to meet the necessary conditions.<\/span><\/p>\n
They will have a positive effect on Chile, because of our extremely diversified exports to the United States. With everything remaining unchanged, the fact that an important export partner like the United States grows above 3%, rather than at 2% (this year), will make it a highly attractive export market. This will also help Europe, a communications vessel, because the United States will represent an attractive market for European businesses, meaning increased growth in that continent. The United States will help generate a better environment in the advanced economies than in 2012 and 2013, which will also benefit Chile.<\/span>They will have a positive effect on Chile, because of our extremely diversified exports to the United States.<\/span><\/p>\n
There is concern here. If we look at the most recent report published by the Bank for International Settlements, the central theme was the continued monetary stimulus, interest rate and bond buying. These are issues which must be treated with care, because they could be feeding the next financial crisis. There is concern that real estate share prices in many countries are highly valued. Stock markets too, so there is a preoccupation. The Bank went even farther, saying that perhaps it was necessary to raise interest rates to remove the strength of these prices. I think this is going too far. The interest rate still has an important role to play, given that the economy has even more output capacity. If problems relating to bubbles arise tomorrow, prudent macro regulation should be considered, or, as regulatory authorities do in Chile, additional provisions should be demanded when credits are used for financing a highly priced house, for example.<\/span><\/p>\n
More than in the stock market, which underwent a severe crash in 2008 and 2009, and from which it has now recovered, perhaps where a bubble might occur is in the prices of corporate bonds classified as weak risk. Here there could be a partial bubble, because of the very low financing costs being paid.<\/span><\/p>\n
If this were true, it would not overly concern me because it would produce no macro effect, given that it is a very small sector.<\/span><\/p>\n