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El Gobierno del presidente Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era est\u00e1 llegando a su fin. En marzo del 2014, el primer mandatario traspasar\u00e1 la banda presidencial a su sucesor. Cabe entonces preguntarse, \u00bfc\u00f3mo lo ha hecho hasta ahora? En el balance, y en t\u00e9rminos estrictamente econ\u00f3micos, el gobierno ha sido bastante exitoso en lograr las metas que estableci\u00f3 hace poco m\u00e1s de tres a\u00f1os. Sin embargo, la baja tasa de aprobaci\u00f3n de la administraci\u00f3n, en especial respecto de temas de mayor compromiso social, ha llamado la atenci\u00f3n sobre los desaf\u00edos que enfrenta Chile a medida que entra en la recta final de su camino hacia el estatus de pa\u00eds desarrollado. <\/p>\n
Cuando el presidente Pi\u00f1era asumi\u00f3 el mando de la naci\u00f3n en el 2010, apenas d\u00edas despu\u00e9s del terremoto que azot\u00f3 a Chile el 27 de febrero de ese a\u00f1o, dispuso un plan de ocho pilares. Los primeros dos pilares estaban relacionados estrictamente con objetivos macroecon\u00f3micos, concentr\u00e1ndose en el crecimiento de a econom\u00eda y el empleo. En t\u00e9rminos econ\u00f3micos, el Gobierno aspiraba a lograr un crecimiento anual del 6% y a la fecha casi lo ha logrado, con Chile expandi\u00e9ndose en torno al 5,8% anual desde el 2010 hasta el primer trimestre de este a\u00f1o. En el frente laboral, el Gobierno estableci\u00f3 como meta la creaci\u00f3n de 1 mill\u00f3n de empleos y es posible que al menos se acerque a conseguirlo con los 817.000 puestos de trabajo que ya se hab\u00edan creado hasta marzo. <\/span><\/p>\n Adem\u00e1s de estas metas, el Gobierno ha logrado metas subyacentes, tales como elevar la tasa de inversi\u00f3n (como porcentaje del PIB) a un 25% hasta el tercer trimestre del a\u00f1o pasado, lo que se compara con el 21% del inicio de su administraci\u00f3n, y reducir el d\u00e9ficit fiscal a menos del 1% (0,6% en el 2012). El gobierno tambi\u00e9n ha disminuido el tiempo que demora iniciar una compa\u00f1\u00eda de 22 d\u00edas a solo uno. En el proceso ha impulsado la creaci\u00f3n de m\u00e1s de 170.000 nuevas empresas, superando su meta de 100.000, con la ayuda de programas como Start-Up Chile. <\/span><\/p>\n Si bien ha contado con la ayuda de precios a\u00fan altos para los bienes b\u00e1sicos, en especial para el cobre, estos logros posiblemente fueron todav\u00eda m\u00e1s impresionantes dado el agitado ambiente econ\u00f3mico externo.<\/span><\/p>\n En tanto, los otros seis pilares estaban relacionados principalmente con temas sociales m\u00e1s intangibles, incluidos seguridad, educaci\u00f3n, salud, erradicaci\u00f3n de la pobreza, calidad de la democracia y reconstrucci\u00f3n despu\u00e9s del terremoto. Estas \u00e1reas son reconocidamente m\u00e1s dif\u00edciles de evaluar, pero sin lugar a dudas se han logrado mejoras notables, como muestran las bajas tasas de delincuencia, el mejor acceso a la educaci\u00f3n, los nuevos hospitales construidos, la menor pobreza, la mejora de la eficiencia a nivel estatal, y la reconstrucci\u00f3n lograda a una tasa del 90% de la inversi\u00f3n requerida. <\/span><\/p>\n Por tanto, parte importante del plan de ocho pilares del Gobierno claramente se ha logrado.<\/span><\/p>\n Dicho esto, una parte significativa de la poblaci\u00f3n de Chile no parece impresionada con estos logros. La tasa de aprobaci\u00f3n del presidente Pi\u00f1era era de apenas un 34% en abril, seg\u00fan la firma de encuestas Adimark. M\u00e1s espec\u00edficamente, el Gobierno recibi\u00f3 bajas tasas de aprobaci\u00f3n en salud (31%), educaci\u00f3n (24%), transporte p\u00fablico (23%) y delincuencia (16%). Incluso la econom\u00eda, que avanza a toda m\u00e1quina, recibi\u00f3 apenas una aprobaci\u00f3n del 49%. El sector de energ\u00eda no est\u00e1 en la lista, pero posiblemente tambi\u00e9n recibir\u00eda una baja aprobaci\u00f3n en base a las actuales dificultades del sector.<\/span><\/p>\n Esta desconexi\u00f3n se puede explicar en parte por una diferencia estructural enfrentada por el presidente Pi\u00f1era, la que est\u00e1 vinculada ya sea a tendencias pol\u00edticas generales en Chile o a su nivel de carisma. Incluso en su punto m\u00e1s alto de aprobaci\u00f3n, tras rescatar a los 33 mineros atrapados en octubre del 2010, solo logr\u00f3 una tasa de aprobaci\u00f3n del 68%, muy por debajo del m\u00e1ximo de 81% de la ex presidenta Michelle Bachelet al dejar la casa de Gobierno.<\/span><\/p>\n De manera m\u00e1s importante, m\u00e1s all\u00e1 de cualquier desventaja estructural, los chilenos se est\u00e1n volviendo cada vez m\u00e1s demandantes. Este fen\u00f3meno, que ha sido descrito previamente como los \u201cdolores de crecimiento\u201d del desarrollo, ha llevado a una mayor agitaci\u00f3n social y a demandas de varios grupos de inter\u00e9s espec\u00edfico. El descontento no parece estar definido por l\u00edneas partidistas o institucionales, sino que m\u00e1s bien forma parte de un consenso amplio.<\/span><\/p>\n El presidente Pi\u00f1era ciertamente ha hecho avanzar a Chile en la direcci\u00f3n correcta a nivel macroecon\u00f3mico, pero tambi\u00e9n ha contribuido a la creciente brecha entre el gobierno y las expectativas de los votantes, dejando un desafiante escenario para su sucesor. Esto amenaza con afectar la competitividad, productividad e inviolabilidad del modelo econ\u00f3mico de larga data de Chile, en momentos en que el pa\u00eds lucha por definir pol\u00edticas transformacionales que le permitir\u00e1n alcanzar el estatus de pa\u00eds desarrollado.<\/span><\/p>\n Brian P. Chase Brian P. Chase es gerente de cartera y titular de acciones andinas de Ita\u00fa Asset Management<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n \n The government of President Sebasti\u00e1n Pi\u00f1era is winding down. In March 2014 President Pi\u00f1era will hand over the presidential sash to his successor. So how has he done so far? On the balance, and strictly in economic terms, the administration has been quite successful in achieving the goals it laid out a little more than three years ago. However, the administration\u2019s low approval rating, especially related to more socially-charged issues, has drawn attention to the challenges that Chile faces as it enters the home stretch on its path to developed country status. <\/p>\n When President Pi\u00f1era took office in 2010, just days after the earthquake that struck Chile on February 27 that year, he laid out an eight-pillar plan. The first two pillars were strictly related to macroeconomic objectives, focusing on economic growth and employment. In terms of the economy, the government aimed to achieve 6% annual growth and has nearly accomplished that to date, with Chile growing at around 5.8% per annum from 2010 through the first quarter of this year. On the employment front, the government set a goal of creating 1 million jobs and is likely to at least come close with 817,000 jobs already created through March. <\/span><\/p>\n In addition to those objectives, the government has achieved underlying goals, such as raising the investment rate (as a percentage of GDP) to 25% as of the third quarter last year, up from 21% at the start of the administration, and reducing the fiscal deficit to below 1% (0.6% in 2012). The administration has also reduced the time to start a company from 22 days to just one. In the process it has fostered the creation of more than 170,000 new businesses, surpassing its goal of 100,000, with the aid of programs such as Start-Up Chile. <\/span><\/p>\n Although aided by still strong commodity prices, especially for copper, these accomplishments were arguably even more impressive given the turbulent external economic environment.<\/span><\/p>\n Meanwhile, the remaining six pillars were primarily related to more intangible social issues, including security, education, healthcare, eradicating poverty, quality of democracy and earthquake reconstruction. These areas are admittedly more difficult to assess, but notable improvements have undoubtedly been achieved, as evidenced by lower crime rates, better access to education, new hospitals built, poverty reduced, efficiency improved at the state level, and reconstruction achieved at a 90% rate of the required investment. <\/span><\/p>\n Therefore, a substantial part of the government\u2019s eight-pillar plan has clearly been achieved.<\/span><\/p>\n That being said, a significant portion of Chile\u2019s population seems unimpressed by these accomplishments. President Pi\u00f1era\u2019s approval rating was just 34% as of April, according to pollster Adimark. More specifically, the government received low approval ratings in healthcare (31%), education (24%), public transport (23%) and crime (16%). Even the economy, which is running at full steam, received just 49% approval. Energy is not in the list, but would also likely receive low approval based on the ongoing difficulties in the sector.<\/span><\/p>\n This disconnect can partially be explained by a structural gap faced by President Pi\u00f1era, whether tied to general political tendencies in Chile or his level of charisma. Even at his peak of approval, after rescuing 33 trapped miners in October 2010, he only managed an approval rating of 68%, far below the 81% peak of former President Bachelet when she left office.<\/span><\/p>\n More importantly, beyond any structural disadvantage, Chileans are becoming increasingly more demanding. This phenomenon, which has been previously described as the \u201cgrowing pains\u201d of development, has led to greater social unrest and demands by various special interest groups. The discontent does not seem to be defined along party or institutional lines, but rather forms part of a broad consensus.<\/span><\/p>\n President Pi\u00f1era has most certainly moved Chile in the right direction at the macroeconomic level, but he has also contributed to the growing divide between government and voters\u2019 expectations, leaving a challenging scenario for his successor. This threatens to affect competitiveness, productivity and the sanctity of Chile\u2019s long-standing economic model, as the country strives to define transformational policies that will allow it to reach developed country status.<\/span><\/p>\n Brian P. Chase is Portfolio Manager, Head of Andean Equities, at Itau Asset Management. <\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n \n <\/p>\n \n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-5026","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n