<\/p>\n
Durante las \u00faltimas semanas, los mercados financieros mundiales han sido testigos de un verdadero drama griego. Como en las obras escritas por S\u00f3focles y Eur\u00edpides, hemos visto como el \u201ch\u00e9roe\u201d, el ex primer ministro Papandreou, intenta sobreponerse a su destino y al de su pa\u00eds. Sin embargo, finalmente sucumbe a su destino, el que le fue impuesto por los dioses que habitan en el Monte Olimpo, o en su caso en Fr\u00e1ncfort en la sede central del Banco Central Europeo. El drama parece terminar (o \u00bfest\u00e1 reci\u00e9n comenzando?) con un nuevo l\u00edder, elegido por su capacidad para contener, al menos moment\u00e1neamente, la ira de los dioses.<\/p>\n
Los mercados han aprendido a lidiar con la volatilidad desde su concepci\u00f3n siempre y cuando la incertidumbre provenga de fuentes conocidas: decepciones sobre el crecimiento econ\u00f3mico o empresas que no cumplen con sus expectativas de resultados. Sin embargo, esta vez parece ser diferente debido a que la causa m\u00e1s importante de la imprevisibilidad proviene de los l\u00edderes pol\u00edticos y su incapacidad para tomar decisiones.<\/p>\n
En el caso de Grecia, que ha resistido cientos de a\u00f1os de pol\u00edtica bizantina, los mercados se han vuelto locos a la espera de las decisiones que se requieren para evitar, o al menos posponer, un Armaged\u00f3n financiero. En un momento las autoridades europeas parecieron suspirar aliviadas luego de tener aparentemente resuelto un masivo programa de rescate para Grecia, el que reducir\u00eda el inminente riesgo de un colapso del sistema bancario de Europa. El acuerdo exig\u00eda la cancelaci\u00f3n en libros del 50% de la deuda de Grecia. No obstante, todo esto se vio alterado de manera inesperada cuando el gobierno llam\u00f3 a someter el plan a un referendo p\u00fablico, lo que extender\u00eda el per\u00edodo de incertidumbre por meses. Los mercados reaccionaron de manera inmediata y los inversionistas hicieron todo lo que pudieron para encontrar los activos m\u00e1s seguros disponibles. Despu\u00e9s de todo, es muy dif\u00edcil que los inversionistas manejen este tipo de riesgo. Todo esto es chino para ellos, o griego m\u00e1s bien.<\/p>\n
Avance un par de semanas: nuestro heroico primer ministro abandona el cargo y el referendo se cancela. Todo parece volver a la normalidad. Sin embargo, en un cambio dr\u00e1stico en los acontecimientos, ahora es Italia la que toma el escenario central. Y nuevamente, los eventos pol\u00edticos est\u00e1n en el centro de la ansiedad del mercado. El ex primer ministro Berlusconi era m\u00e1s parte del problema que de la soluci\u00f3n y un cambio de liderazgo era necesario para volver a concentrar el debate en la econom\u00eda. El nuevo primer ministro, Mario Monti, es respetado por las agencias multilaterales y los bancos si bien no parece contar con el benepl\u00e1cito de los pol\u00edticos italianos, lo que podr\u00eda no ser malo. Sin embargo, los inversionistas nuevamente son v\u00edctimas del p\u00e1nico que se origina a partir de la pol\u00edtica. Esta vez, todo es italiano para ellos (o lat\u00edn quiz\u00e1s).<\/p>\n
No obstante, en todo caso los recientes cambios de liderazgo han dado una nota positiva. En la medida que los inversionistas logran calmarse mientras desaparece algo de la incertidumbre pol\u00edtica, pueden concentrarse ahora en las proyecciones econ\u00f3micas. Desafortunadamente, no hay muchas buenas noticias que encontrar. Algunos analistas calculan que se requiere un rescate mucho mayor para que la econom\u00eda griega se recupere y comience a crecer de nuevo. Italia, por su parte, a\u00fan enfrenta una deuda soberana que supera el 120% de su PIB y que sigue subiendo dado que tiene que financiarse con bonos a 10 a\u00f1os denominados en euros emitidos con un rendimiento de m\u00e1s del 7%. En contraste, emitir deuda es mucho m\u00e1s barato para Chile, que en septiembre pasado emiti\u00f3 deuda gubernamental denominada en d\u00f3lares al 3,3% por el mismo lapso de tiempo.<\/p>\n
Pese a este sombr\u00edo escenario econ\u00f3mico, hay demasiado en juego para los l\u00edderes europeos como para dejar que Roma caiga. Har\u00e1n todo lo posible para mantener a Europa unida y para mantener vivo al euro. No ser\u00e1 un camino sencillo, pero al menos es conocido por los inversionistas. A pesar de sus dificultades, con certeza ser\u00e1 m\u00e1s f\u00e1cil que aprender griego o lat\u00edn.<\/p>\n
Axel Christensen es director ejecutivo de BlackRock para Sudam\u00e9rica, sin incluir Brasil<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n For the last few weeks, the world\u2019s financial markets have been witness to a true Greek drama. Like the plays written by Sophocles and Euripides, we have seen how the \u201chero\u201d, former Prime Minister Papandreou, seeks to overcome his destiny and that of his country. However, he finally succumbs to his fate, brought upon him by the gods that dwell on Mount Olympus, or in this case in Frankfurt at the headquarters of the European Central Bank. The drama seems to end (or is it just the beginning?) with a new leadership, chosen for its ability to contain, at least momentarily, the wrath of the gods.<\/p>\n Markets have learned to deal with volatility since their inception as long as the uncertainty stemmed from known sources: economic growth disappointments or companies not meeting their earnings expectations. But this time it seems different as the most important cause of unpredictability comes from political leaders and their inability to make decisions.<\/p>\n In the case of Greece, which has endured hundreds of years of Byzantine politics, the markets have been driven crazy waiting for the decisions needed to avoid, or at least postpone, financial Armageddon. At one point European authorities seemed to sigh in relief after appearing to have settled on a massive bailout program for Greece that would reduce the imminent risk of Europe\u2019s banking system collapsing. The arrangement called for writing off 50% of Greece\u2019s debt. However, all this was upset unexpectedly when the government called for a public referendum on the plan, which would extend the period of uncertainty for months. Markets reacted immediately with investors taking every step to find the safest asset available. After all, it is very difficult for investors to manage this type of risk. It\u2019s all Greek to them.<\/p>\n Fast forward a couple of weeks: our heroic Prime Minister is out of a job and the referendum is called off. Everything seems to be back to normal. However, in a dramatic change in events, it is now Italy that takes the center stage. And again, political events are at the source of market anxiety. Former Prime Minister Berlusconi was more a part of the problem than the solution and a change in leadership was necessary to refocus the debate on the economy. The new Prime Minister, Mario Monti, is well respected by multilateral agencies and banks although he does not seem to be welcomed by Italian politicians, which may not be a bad thing. But investors are again victims of the panic that originates from politics. This time, it\u2019s all Italian (or Latin perhaps) to them.<\/p>\n If anything, however, the recent changes in leadership have struck a positive note. To the extent that investors are able to calm down as some political uncertainties disappear, they can now focus on economic forecasts. Unfortunately, there is not much good news to be found. Some analysts calculate that a far larger bailout is needed for the Greek economy to recover and start growing again. Italy, for its part, still faces sovereign debt that exceeds 120% of its GDP and rising as it has to finance itself with Euro denominated 10-year bonds issued at more than 7%. By comparison, issuing debt is much cheaper for Chile which issued dollar denominated government debt at 3.3% for the same term last September.<\/p>\n Despite this gloomy economic scenario, there is too much at stake for European leaders to let Rome fall. They will do anything possible to keep Europe united and to keep the Euro alive. It will not be an easy road, but at least it is a familiar one for investors. Notwithstanding its difficulties, it will surely be easier than learning Greek or Latin.<\/p>\n Axel Christensen is Managing Director for South America ex Brazil at Blackrock<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" <\/p>\n Durante las \u00faltimas semanas, los mercados financieros mundiales han sido testigos de un verdadero drama griego. Como en las obras escritas por S\u00f3focles y Eur\u00edpides, hemos visto como el \u201ch\u00e9roe\u201d, el ex primer ministro Papandreou, intenta sobreponerse a su destino y al de su pa\u00eds. Sin embargo, finalmente sucumbe a su destino, el que le fue impuesto por los dioses que habitan en el Monte Olimpo, o en su caso en Fr\u00e1ncfort en la sede central del Banco Central Europeo.<\/p>\n For the last few weeks, the world\u2019s financial markets have been witness to a true Greek drama. Like the plays written by Sophocles and Euripides, we have seen how the \u201chero\u201d, former Prime Minister Papandreou, seeks to overcome his destiny and that of his country. However, he finally succumbs to his fate, brought upon him by the gods that dwell on Mount Olympus, or in this case in Frankfurt at the headquarters of the European Central Bank.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-4685","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n