{"id":10344,"date":"2017-12-01T10:16:58","date_gmt":"2017-12-01T13:16:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.amchamchile.cl\/?p=154749"},"modified":"2017-12-26T10:19:32","modified_gmt":"2017-12-26T13:19:32","slug":"chile-desafios-para-2018","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/en\/noticia\/chile-desafios-para-2018\/","title":{"rendered":"[:es]Chile: desaf\u00edos para 2018[:en]Chile: Challenges for 2018[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

[:es]\"\"
\nIndependientemente de qui\u00e9n gane la segunda vuelta el 17 de diciembre, Chile a\u00fan enfrenta muchos desaf\u00edos econ\u00f3micos en 2018. La nueva administraci\u00f3n llegar\u00e1 en un momento en que Chile est\u00e1 luchando por recuperarse despu\u00e9s de cuatro a\u00f1os de crecimiento por debajo de su potencial, dejando al pa\u00eds con pocos \u00e1mbitos para est\u00edmulos adicionales, ya sean monetarios o fiscales. Lo anterior, ha contribuido al deterioro de las finanzas p\u00fablicas. Como resultado, es probable que se produzca un espacio limitado para implementar agendas costosas, sin poner en riesgo la posici\u00f3n financiera privilegiada de Chile.<\/p>\n

Aunque los participantes del mercado no esperan un crecimiento real del PIB superior al 1,5% en 2017, el optimismo ha comenzado a aumentar, ayudado por el rebote de los precios de los commodities<\/em> y la anticipaci\u00f3n de cambios pol\u00edticos, tal vez en el esp\u00edritu de otras administraciones m\u00e1s pro mercado en la regi\u00f3n. El \u00edndice de confianza empresarial IMCE, medido por ICARE, y el \u00edndice de confianza del consumidor IPEC, medido por Adimark, han alcanzado sus niveles m\u00e1s altos desde 2014. El \u00edndice burs\u00e1til IPSA ha subido 25% en CLP y 32% en USD hasta la fecha, al 22 de noviembre, en l\u00ednea con \u00edndices de Mercados Emergentes, mientras que ha superado a la mayor\u00eda de los \u00edndices globales.<\/p>\n

Mientras tanto, la actividad econ\u00f3mica ha mostrado algunas se\u00f1ales incipientes de recuperaci\u00f3n en la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o, con un crecimiento del PIB real que alcanz\u00f3 2,2% en el 3T17, por encima del 1% en trimestres anteriores, principalmente por mayor consumo y la reactivaci\u00f3n de la actividad minera. Como resultado, las proyecciones para el crecimiento del PIB real en 2018 tambi\u00e9n han aumentado, alcanzando el 3% en la \u00faltima encuesta del Banco Central.<\/p>\n

A pesar de la perspectiva m\u00e1s optimista, los riesgos para el crecimiento permanecen. Externamente, las tensiones geopol\u00edticas han aumentado, mientras que la incertidumbre econ\u00f3mica de China ha replanteado el liderazgo de dicho pa\u00eds, poniendo mayor \u00e9nfasis en la calidad sobre la cantidad. Esta situaci\u00f3n podr\u00eda reducir la actividad econ\u00f3mica de uno de los socios comerciales m\u00e1s importantes de Chile. En el frente interno, la inversi\u00f3n sigue siendo moderada dada la falta de incentivos claros en muchos sectores, con una recuperaci\u00f3n que depende mucho de las pol\u00edticas de la nueva administraci\u00f3n. Adem\u00e1s, el ciclo de pol\u00edtica monetaria expansiva probablemente ha terminado y la inflaci\u00f3n ha comenzado a repuntar. Como consecuencia, los recortes de tasas se han vuelto menos probables y el Banco Central podr\u00eda avanzar hacia la normalizaci\u00f3n de las pol\u00edticas monetarias a fines del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Quiz\u00e1s lo m\u00e1s preocupante sean las restricciones estructurales que han surgido en las finanzas p\u00fablicas. Crecimiento por debajo del potencial y la reducci\u00f3n de las fuentes de ingresos, junto con un mayor gasto, han producido un aumento sustancial de la deuda p\u00fablica, por encima del 20% del PIB, el nivel m\u00e1s alto que ha experimentado el pa\u00eds en m\u00e1s de dos d\u00e9cadas. Mientras tanto, el d\u00e9ficit fiscal ha alcanzado m\u00e1s del 2% del PIB, con el balance estructural disminuyendo a niveles similares, lo que pone a un presupuesto balanceado fuera de la vista. A pesar de que, seg\u00fan los est\u00e1ndares regionales, Chile todav\u00eda es bastante s\u00f3lido desde el punto de vista financiero, el deterioro de estas cifras provoc\u00f3 una rebaja de las calificaciones de las agencias crediticias en el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n

Con una nueva administraci\u00f3n posiblemente buscando aumentar el gasto a su llegada, puede haber un espacio limitado para maniobras sin afectar a\u00fan m\u00e1s las calificaciones crediticias, los spreads<\/em> de riesgo y el acceso general al cr\u00e9dito. En este contexto, va a ser importante mantener los objetivos estructurales en las cuentas p\u00fablicas junto con la creaci\u00f3n de nuevos incentivos para aumentar la inversi\u00f3n privada.[:en]\"\"
\nRegardless of who wins the upcoming presidential runoff election on December 17, Chile is still facing many challenges on the economic front heading into 2018.\u00a0 The new administration will arrive at a time when Chile is struggling to recover after four years of below potential growth, which has left little room for further stimulus, either monetary or fiscal, while contributing to the deterioration of public finances.\u00a0 As a result, there will likely be limited room to enact costly agendas without further jeopardizing Chile\u2019s privileged financial position.<\/p>\n

Although market participants do not expect real GDP growth to surpass 1.5% in 2017, optimism has begun to rise, helped by rebounding commodity prices and anticipation of political change, perhaps in the spirit of other more pro-market administrations in the region.\u00a0 The IMCE business confidence index, as measured by iCARE, and the IPEC consumer confidence index, as measured by Adimark, have both reached their highest levels since 2014.\u00a0 The benchmark IPSA stock index has risen by 25% in CLP and 32% in USD year-to-date, as of November 22, in line with broader Emerging Markets indices, while outperforming most global indices.<\/p>\n

Economic activity has shown some incipient signs of recovery in the second half of the year with real GDP growth reaching 2.2% in 3Q17, up from figures below 1% in previous quarters, mainly on the back of improved consumption and mining activity.\u00a0 As a result, forecasts for 2018 real GDP growth have also been rising, reaching 3% in the latest survey from the Central Bank.<\/p>\n

Despite the more optimistic outlook, risks to growth remain.\u00a0 Externally, geopolitical tensions have risen, while China uncertainty has returned with leadership in that country now placing greater emphasis on quality over quantity, possibly leading to reduced activity for Chile\u2019s primary trade partner. On the domestic front, investment remains subdued given a lack of clear incentives in many sectors with recovery likely tied to policy decisions of the new administration.\u00a0 In addition, the monetary easing cycle has likely ended and inflation has begun to pick up.\u00a0 As a result, further rate cuts have become less likely and the Central Bank could move towards policy normalization by the end of next year.<\/p>\n

Perhaps more worrisome are the structural constraints that have emerged in the public finances.\u00a0 Below potential growth and reduced sources of revenue, coupled with continued spending, have resulted in a substantial rise in government debt to above 20% of GDP, the highest level the country has seen in more than two decades.\u00a0 Meanwhile the fiscal deficit has reached more than 2% of GDP with the structural balance declining to similar levels, placing a balanced budget further out of sight.\u00a0 Although by regional standards, Chile is still quite financially sound, the deterioration in these figures led to ratings downgrades by credit agencies in the past year.<\/p>\n

With a new administration possibly looking to advance spending upon arrival, there may be limited room to maneuver without further affecting credit ratings, risk spreads and overall access to credit.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[:es] Independientemente de qui\u00e9n gane la segunda vuelta el 17 de diciembre, Chile a\u00fan enfrenta muchos desaf\u00edos econ\u00f3micos en 2018. La nueva administraci\u00f3n llegar\u00e1 en un momento en que Chile est\u00e1 luchando por recuperarse despu\u00e9s de cuatro a\u00f1os de crecimiento por debajo de su potencial, dejando al pa\u00eds con pocos \u00e1mbitos para est\u00edmulos adicionales, ya […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-10344","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n[:es]Chile: desaf\u00edos para 2018[:en]Chile: Challenges for 2018[:] - AmCham Chile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/en\/noticia\/chile-desafios-para-2018\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:es]Chile: desaf\u00edos para 2018[:en]Chile: Challenges for 2018[:] - AmCham Chile\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[:es] Independientemente de qui\u00e9n gane la segunda vuelta el 17 de diciembre, Chile a\u00fan enfrenta muchos desaf\u00edos econ\u00f3micos en 2018. 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