{"id":10058,"date":"2017-04-11T17:58:47","date_gmt":"2017-04-11T20:58:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.amchamchile.cl\/?p=150404"},"modified":"2017-04-13T13:51:12","modified_gmt":"2017-04-13T16:51:12","slug":"foco-economico-trumpflation-sigue-vigente","status":"publish","type":"news","link":"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/en\/noticia\/foco-economico-trumpflation-sigue-vigente\/","title":{"rendered":"[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: \u201cTrumpflation\u201d sigue vigente[:en]\u201cTrumpflation\u201d down, but not out[:]"},"content":{"rendered":"

[:es]
\nEn los cinco meses que han pasado desde las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos, el mundo ha sido testigo de una tendencia alcista en los mercados, los sentimientos y los precios. Algunos participantes lo han nombrado \u201cTrumpflation\u201d en l\u00ednea con las expectativas de una serie de nuevas medidas destinadas a estimular el crecimiento y la inflaci\u00f3n en Estados Unidos.
\nEl fen\u00f3meno \u201cTrumpflation\u201d recientemente parec\u00eda chocar con un muro, ya que los republicanos de la C\u00e1mara Baja no llegaron a un acuerdo sobre la revocaci\u00f3n del programa de salud del ex Presidente Obama (ACA u Obamacare), representando el primer fracaso pol\u00edtico importante del Presidente Trump. Sin embargo, es poco probable que esto sirva para frenar la actual recuperaci\u00f3n de la econom\u00eda mundial, que comenz\u00f3 mucho antes de las elecciones y parece ser parte de un repunte c\u00edclico m\u00e1s amplio. Adem\u00e1s, con el Presidente Trump enfrentando limitaciones obvias en los temas m\u00e1s pol\u00e9micos, es posible que el enfoque cambie r\u00e1pidamente a la reforma tributaria, un \u00e1rea para la cual puede haber una mayor oportunidad de llegar a un acuerdo y ciertamente tener
\nm\u00e1s impacto directo sobre el crecimiento y la inflaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrumpflation\u201d comenz\u00f3 r\u00e1pido y furioso. El \u00edndice S&P subi\u00f3 14% en las primeras cuatro semanas despu\u00e9s de la elecci\u00f3n, acompa\u00f1ado por tendencias positivas en la mayor\u00eda de las bolsas globales. La confianza de las empresas creci\u00f3, con encuestas claves como las de la Fed de Filadelfia y la de Dallas alcanzando los m\u00e1ximos niveles de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, mientras que el Conference Board, con sede en Nueva York, report\u00f3 el mayor nivel de confianza de los consumidores en 16 a\u00f1os. Aunque estos \u201cdatos suaves\u201d a\u00fan no se han transformado en \u201cdatos duros\u201d y existe el riesgo de que el PIB y la inflaci\u00f3n no converjan a niveles m\u00e1s altos, hay un sesgo claro al alza.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

A pesar del entusiasmo del mercado, el lado pol\u00edtico de la ecuaci\u00f3n ha mostrado una clara desconexi\u00f3n. Los opositores a ambos lados del pasillo han logrado atropellar a la administraci\u00f3n Trump a trav\u00e9s de la \u201cnarrativa rusa\u201d, las protestas, las salidas de miembros del gabinete, las investigaciones e incluso dichos sobre un eventual impeachment. Mucho de esto no se ha materializado en resultados concretos.<\/p>\n

Sin embargo, la falta de revocaci\u00f3n de ACA marc\u00f3 un punto de inflexi\u00f3n clave, ya que expuso obst\u00e1culos esenciales para ejecutar una estrategia m\u00e1s amplia, haciendo que muchos cuestionaran la eficacia de la administraci\u00f3n Trump. Aunque esto es una preocupaci\u00f3n v\u00e1lida, el escenario m\u00e1s probable es que se fuerce el pragmatismo, cambiando el enfoque de los temas pol\u00edticos m\u00e1s pol\u00e9micos hacia la econom\u00eda, donde puede ser m\u00e1s f\u00e1cil construir un consenso. Esto podr\u00eda incluir el avance de las iniciativas de mediano plazo, como las de infraestructura y la desregulaci\u00f3n,
\npara coincidir con una reforma tributaria comprensiva.<\/p>\n

Mientras tanto, la econom\u00eda global parece estar en medio de una recuperaci\u00f3n c\u00edclica que comenz\u00f3 mucho antes de las elecciones. Los PMIs mundiales han estado recuper\u00e1ndose desde junio del a\u00f1o pasado, alcanzando los niveles m\u00e1ximos de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, mientras que otros indicadores \u201csuaves\u201d y \u201cduros\u201d, como la confianza de las empresas y los gastos de capital corporativo, muestran un panorama similar. Esto sugiere que en un escenario de \u201cTrumpflation\u201d m\u00e1s benigno, es poco probable que cambie la tendencia de la reactivaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica a nivel mundial. Adem\u00e1s, cualquier retroceso temporal a lo largo del camino s\u00f3lo puede crear una pausa en el ciclo de ajuste monetario del mundo desarrollado, mientras que permite a los bancos centrales en lugares como Chile y otros mercados emergentes cumplir con su actual ciclo expansivo.<\/p>\n

Aunque los riesgos relacionados con la pol\u00edtica europea (a corto plazo), el crecimiento de China (a mediano plazo) y la recesi\u00f3n de Estados Unidos (a largo plazo) siguen existiendo, parece que por
\nel momento la mayor parte del mundo deber\u00eda experimentar mejor actividad econ\u00f3mica en los pr\u00f3ximos trimestres.<\/p>\n

Por Brian P. Chase<\/strong>
\nPortfolio Manager Head of Andean Equities<\/strong>
\nIta\u00fa Asset Management<\/strong>[:en]
\nIn the five months since the US presidential election, the world has witnessed an extraordinary move in markets, sentiment and prices.\u00a0 Some participants have deemed this \u201cTrumpflation\u201d on the back of expectations for a series of new measures aimed at creating growth and inflation in the US.\u00a0 The \u201cTrumpflation\u201d thesis recently seemed to hit a wall, as House Republicans failed to agree on the repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or \u201cObamacare\u201d), representing President Trump\u2019s first major political setback.\u00a0 However, this is unlikely to curb the current global growth recovery, which began well before the election and seems to be part of a broader cyclical upturn.\u00a0 Furthermore, with President Trump facing obvious limitations on the most contentious issues, it is possible that focus quickly shifts to tax reform, an area for which there may be a greater chance for compromise and certainly more of a direct impact on growth and inflation.<\/p>\n

\u201cTrumpflation\u201d started fast and furious.\u00a0 The S&P rose 14% in the four weeks since the election, accompanied by positive moves across most global markets.\u00a0 Business confidence spiked with key surveys, such as those from the Philadelphia Fed and Dallas Fed, reaching multi-year highs, while the New York-based Conference Board reported the highest level of consumer confidence in 16 years. Although this \u201csoft data\u201d has yet to be confirmed in \u201chard data\u201d and there is risk that GDP and inflation ultimately do not converge higher, there is certainly a clear bias to the upside from current levels.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Despite market enthusiasm, the political side of the equation has shown a clear disconnect.\u00a0 Opponents on both sides of the aisle have managed to bog down the Trump administration via the \u201cRussian narrative\u201d, protests, cabinet departures, inquiries and even talk of impeachment.\u00a0 Much of this has not led to concrete outcomes.\u00a0 However, failure to repeal ACA marked a key turning point, as it exposed key roadblocks to executing a broader strategy, causing many to question the effectiveness of the Trump administration.\u00a0 Although this is a valid concern, the more probable scenario is that it may force pragmatism, shifting the focus from the more contentious political issues towards the economy, where it may be easier to build consensus.\u00a0 This could even include moving forward mid-term infrastructure initiatives and de-regulation to coincide with a comprehensive tax reform.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the global economy appears to be in the midst of a cyclical upturn that started well before the election.\u00a0 \u00a0Global PMIs have been inflecting since June of last year, recently reaching multi-year highs, while other hard and soft indicators, such as business confidence and corporate capital expenditures, paint a similar picture.\u00a0 This suggests that even under a more benign \u201cTrumpflation\u201d scenario, it is unlikely to change the broader trend of reflation in the world.\u00a0 Furthermore, any temporary setbacks along the way are only likely to be met with a pause in the monetary tightening cycle of the developed world, while allowing central banks in places like Chile and other emerging markets to fully deliver on their current expansionary cycle.<\/p>\n

Although tail risks related to European politics (near term), Chinese growth (mid-term) and US recession (long-term) still exist, it looks like for the time being most of the world should experience better economic activity over the coming quarters.[:]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

[:es] En los cinco meses que han pasado desde las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos, el mundo ha sido testigo de una tendencia alcista en los mercados, los sentimientos y los precios. Algunos participantes lo han nombrado \u201cTrumpflation\u201d en l\u00ednea con las expectativas de una serie de nuevas medidas destinadas a estimular el crecimiento y […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"template":"","news_tax":[],"user_type":[],"class_list":["post-10058","news","type-news","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: \u201cTrumpflation\u201d sigue vigente[:en]\u201cTrumpflation\u201d down, but not out[:] - AmCham Chile<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/amchamchile.cl\/noticia\/foco-economico-trumpflation-sigue-vigente\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:es]Foco Econ\u00f3mico: \u201cTrumpflation\u201d sigue vigente[:en]\u201cTrumpflation\u201d down, but not out[:] - AmCham Chile\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[:es] En los cinco meses que han pasado desde las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos, el mundo ha sido testigo de una tendencia alcista en los mercados, los sentimientos y los precios. 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